Turnagain Pass and Girdwood

The avalanche danger is LOW at all elevations. While there may still be isolated pockets of windblown snow lurking out there, it is unlikely a person will trigger a large avalanche today. However, that doesn't mean the risk is zero. Maintain safe travel protocol in case you get caught by surprise, and always be ready to adjust terrain objectives if you notice warning signs like shooting cracks or collapsing.

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We are excited to roll out some changes to our Chugach State Park forecast product beginning this weekend. We will issue a full avalanche forecast with a danger rating, avalanche problems, and a 24-hour outlook on Saturday mornings at 7 am.  We'll continue issuing a forecast one day per week (Saturday mornings) through the end of the season. We will test this for the remainder of the season and reassess in the spring. Thanks for bearing with us as we take this next step to continue to grow the program! 

Free Forecaster Chat at the Breeze Inn in Seward, March 5! Grab some food and drink at 6pm on March 5 and join CNFAC forecaster Mik Dalpes to discuss the ‘state of the snowpack’, learn about resources on the CNFAC website, discuss tips for managing persistent slab problems, and bring your hard question for a Q & A.  The Mt. Alice room is located just off the lobby of The Breeze Inn Hotel located at 303 North Harbor Dr. right off 3rd Ave in Seward.

Recent Avalanches: The last known avalanches in the Girdwood/Turnagain zone occurred 9 days ago in the Crow Creek area (details here and here). It has been two weeks since avalanches falling on a deeper weak layer were reported at Turnagain Pass. 

We are ten days out from our last recorded precipitation (a whopping 1" at Turnagain Pass on 2/18), and two days past an outflow wind event that obliterated most surfaces. Without a significant loading event, it is very unlikely a person will trigger an avalanche on the buried weak layers that we have been concerned with. Field observations indicate the wind slabs that formed over the past week are unreactive as well. With both of those problems more or less dormant for now, we are not expecting to see avalanche activity until we receive new precipitation.

Predicting avalanche likelihood is a calculated guess, and the probability of triggering an avalanche across an entire forecast zone is never zero. Although it is unlikely a person will trigger an avalanche, it is always a good idea to practice smart travel protocol— traveling one at a time in steep terrain, watching partners from safe spots outside of avalanche runout zones, and carrying avalanche rescue gear. Be ready to adjust your objective if you notice any warning signs like shooting cracks or collapsing. Even during these generally stable periods, avalanches can never be ruled out entirely.