Avalanche forecast

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

At upper elevations is where you'll find wind-drifted slabs as westerly winds have picked up overnight drifting the lower-density from yesterday's storm snow into more sensitive slabs on the surface. Watch for obvious wind-drifted pillows and stiffening of the snow. Most of these wind slabs will be found on the leeward sides of ridgelines and cross-loaded terrain features. Deeper down in the snowpack facets and depth hoar near the ground continues to linger, especially near and below treeline.  Avoid slopes where you get obvious signs of instability like loud audible collapses and shooting cracks.  Sticking to lower-angled wind-sheltered terrain will provide better and safer riding conditions.  

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Winds picked up overnight and easily drift the recently fallen snow into thicker and slightly denser wind slabs at upper elevations.  Avoid slopes where you find more than a foot of snow, watch for obvious wind-drifted pillows, and shooting cracks on the surface.  These wind slabs will mainly be found on the leeward sides of ridgelines and cross-loaded terrain features. These slabs have formed on top of firm crusts from very strong wind events prior to this latest round of snow which may provide a good bed surface for avalanches to run on.  An avalanche near the surface has the potential to step down into deeper weak layers creating a larger more destructive avalanche. 

    Watch for cornices to continue to grow and can break back further than you might expect on ridgelines as well as provide a big trigger to slopes below. 

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2

    Weak facets and depth hoar continue to linger near the ground, especially on some slopes near and below treeline.  These elevation bands had shallow and thin snowpacks prior to storms in mid-February. Recently formed slabs rest on top of these persistent weak layers that we've seen become problematic with each of the last significant storm systems over the last couple of weeks.  At upper elevations, the snowpack is deeper and denser with hard slabs from strong wind events throughout the season and may take you finding a likely trigger point on the margins of the slab, near rock outcrops. These avalanches would be large and able to propagate widely across the slope or terrain features. Pay attention to obvious signs of instability like loud audible collapses and shooting cracks.  

Avalanche Discussion

Wednesday night/Thursday's storm brought about 10 inches of snow and 0.8" of SWE with light winds.  This was one of the rare storms this season that came in with very little wind, which made for excellent skiing and riding without much noticeable instability.  Storm snow was not very reactive yesterday, with the biggest concern being loose snow sluffing in steep terrain. However, winds picked up overnight out of the W/NW and will have easily drifted the new snow into more sensitive wind slabs at upper elevations.   Westerly winds have been in the teens overnight gusting in the 20 to 30 mph range with moderate west winds expected today under clear skies. Windy conditions look to stick with us through Monday with winds ramping up on Sunday where we could see gusts in the 60 to 70 mph range. 

With sunny skies, warming temperatures, and the intense sun this time year of year we may see small loose snow avalanches on the solar aspects and lower elevation.  These types of avalanches tend to start as a point release around sun-bathed rock bands and fan out as they travel down the slope. Watch for the snow surface becoming wet or moist or pinwheels or rollerballs.  Head to a shadier aspect if you notice these indications of the snow surface warming up.    

Faceted weak layers and depth hoar near the ground, have become problematic with each significant storm we've seen this year.  The storm last week which brought a foot of snow and strong winds, produced several large natural avalanches. A similar story unfolded with the Valentine's Day storm, with a very close call from a human-triggered avalanche in below treeline terrain on a northerly aspect.  Below and near treeline terrain is where the snowpack was shallow prior to this latest round of storms.  In some cases, the entire snowpack comprised of facets before being buried by slabs since Valentines day. On these slopes, persistent weak layers near the ground have been slow to heal and strengthen. This terrain continues in my opinion to remain the most suspect for persistent slab avalanches. We haven't seen the natural avalanche activity with this latest storm, but it may just require a little extra from you to get these weak layers to collapse.  

At upper elevations, the snowpack is a little more complex. Some slopes have much deeper snowpacks and deeper weak layers have been less of a concern as they have been difficult to trigger under denser hard slabs from strong wind events during the season. However, slabs and snowpack depths are not uniform across slopes as strong winds this year have stripped and scoured some slopes and loaded others.  It may just take you finding a "sweet spot" where the overall slab is thinner on the margins of the slab or near rock outcrops.  Avalanche paths that ran earlier in the season could also be more suspect.  

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