Avalanche forecast

Continental

Valdez Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Out of date — this forecast expired 6 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

The avalanche hazard is considerable. Dangerous avalanche conditions exist over a wide area. Recent  large Natural avalanches  through Thompson Pass indicate concerning instability. Buried weak snow exists in all zones and is contributing to the hazadous situation. We highly recommend cautious terrain selction today. Human triggered avalanches are likely 1-3 feet deep and could propagate wide distances into adjacent terrain. 

Public avalanche forecasts are issued Wednesday-Sunday at 8 am. 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2–3

    We have multiple persistent weak layers in our snowpack at the moment. The most concerning layer is a thin layer of faceted snow that has resulted in several large natural avalaches over the last 36 hours. Recent snowfall has burried this layer 1-3 feet deep in many areas above 3000 feet causing the potential for large destructive avalanches. With these types of avalanches long irregular fracture propagation can effect terrain quite some distance from the trigger point including lower angle slopes. To make things more complicated, signs of instability underfoot may be absent even though hazardous conditions exist. The best way to deal with this problem is by carefully managing the terrain you travel on as well as your exposure from above.  

    Burried surface hoar formed on 1/26 has recentely been  found up to 3800 feet in the continental zone. Large well preserved "upright" surface hoar burried 1-2 feet deep has been reactive in pit tests but has not recently produced avalanche activity. We will likely see increased sensitivity with this layer in the Continental zone with new snow loads or changes in slab character. 

    An additional weak layer of facets at the bottom of a thin snowpack below 3000 feet is showing reactivity in pit tests. We have yet to see any recent avalanche activity on this layer but it could become more of a concern with additional loading or changes in the overlying slab.

    Caution is advised on all terrain over 32 degrees.  

    Due to the nature of persistent weak layers this problem is not likely to go away quickly.

    (2/13/2026)

    Naturally triggered persistent slab on N oddessey. The long irregular fracture line that crosses terrain features is an indicator of a burried persistent weak layer.

    Photo: Joshua McDonald

  • Deep Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    2–3

    The weak facets near the ground in the shallow snowpack below 3000 feet also exist in upper elevations burried over a meter deep. Triggering this layer is unlikely for most right now due to its deep burial. Although unlikely, conseqquences of an avalanche would be severe so we recomend keeping this problem on your radar. Shallow areas where the layer is closer to the surface are more liklely to be effected by a person or snowmachine. These include rocky ridges/ourcrops and other high points that may have been scoured by the wind. 

    We expect this problem to be most widespread in the Continental Zone. 

    Travel advice: Avoid committing to big, consequential terrain where a deep release would be unsurvivable. Choose routes that minimize time spent under overhead start zones and avoid thin, rocky trigger points.

    (1/23/2026)

    Large connected natural hard slab avalanche associated with our deep persistent weak layer. Mt Dimond north face

    Photo: Gareth Brown

Avalanche Discussion

Avalanche activity in the last 72 hours: 

-Over the last 36 hours there have been several large Naturally triggered persistent slab avalanches in Thompson Pass Corridor. These where observed on Tones Temple, Little Oddesey, Oddesey, and N cathers Mitt. 

-Photos at the bottom of the page show avalanches from last week that failed on our persistent weak layer. These avalanches are older than 72 hours, but the layer that these avalanches failed on is still very much a concern. Detailed acounts of these avalanches can be found in the observations/avalanche tab.

Forecast Discussion

Recent Persistent slab avalanche activity through Thompson Pass corridor indicates elevated instability. Due to the nature of this problem we expect the instability to linger for longer than expected with a simple storm slab or windslab problem.  Although you may experience conditions that feel stable this does not indicate the absence of hazard. Today will be a nice sunny day to get out into the mountains. Don't be drawn into dangerous terrain because of "powder fever".  

Moderate outflow winds that have been forecasted have been lighter than expected. If we see an increase in snow transport due to wind there may be an increasing chance of finding isolated pockets of sensitive windslab. 

 

For more information regarding our snowpack, see our Season summary, Observations, and avalanche activity sections.   

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