Avalanche forecast

Northwest Mountains

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
View on map

Avalanche danger

Fri
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
Open full map
Out of date — this forecast expired 5 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

We'll have a period of favorable stability this morning while the upper snowpack remains mostly frozen.  The danger could rise to Considerable as daytime warming increases the threat of large natural wet avalanches. Travel early in steep terrain before surface crusts thaw or meltwater penetrates deeper into the snowpack.  On northerly aspects, triggering a large, hard slab several feet thick remains a very low-probability threat in thinner, variable snowpacks shaped by past wind drifting.

Avalanche problems

  • Wet Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    Travel early in the day to limit your exposure to wet avalanches.  Mountain temperatures will crest 50°F following another poor overnight refreeze. As meltwater advances, it can weaken the upper snowpack or buried weak layers, causing dangerous slab releases or gouging loose avalanches. Wet avalanches are unlikely early in the day while the surface remains frozen and meltwater production is limited. The hazard increases as the snowpack warms and free water moves deeper. The most concerning terrain is where previously dry snowpacks are transitioning to wet conditions this week—especially in steeper, rockier slopes. Many south-facing slopes have already made this transition, while high-elevation northerly aspects are unlikely to produce enough meltwater today.  

    A skier triggered wet slab earlier this week on Whetstone.  (3/14/2026) 

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    2–2.5

    Old, hard slabs 2 to 3+ feet thick overlie buried weak layers and are isolated and difficult to trigger. Without obvious warning signs, avalanches are most likely triggered where the slab is thinner and easier to impact the weak layer below.  Cornice falls can also act as triggers. You can reduce your risk by avoiding steep terrain with a thin or variable snowpack, such as rocky areas, rollovers, or places where wind has created uneven slab thickness. The southern half of the compass and slopes with consistently deep and uniform snow depths offer safer options.

    The last persistent slab avalanche in the Northwest Mountains ran in late February on Mt. Axtell.  It released below a cornice on a steep face that has avalanched multiple times this winter. 

Avalanche Discussion

Day 2 of the record-breaking heatwave brings an even weaker overnight refreeze (low temperatures at 11,000' only dropped to 40°F) and temperatures climbing a few degrees higher than yesterday. Although we didn’t observe significant wet avalanche activity locally, a few wet slabs released late yesterday in the San Juans. Closer to home, forecasters noted free water pooling at a midpack weak layer near Elkton by midday, and in the alpine, meltwater was steadily draining off rocks into the snowpack (video).  These are important signs that water is moving through the snowpack.  We usually see more direct precursors to large wet avalanche cycles, such as wet loose avalanches gouging deeper into the snowpack and a few indicator wet slab releases.  Without those local indicators yesterday, confidence is lower that a large wet cycle begins today. Still, it’s difficult to ignore consecutive days of absurd heat acting on poor snowpack structures. Water movement through the snowpack is variable and often delayed, and many of our usual “early warning” slopes—like Gibson Ridge or Red Ridge—are already too shallow or melted out to provide reliable feedback. Complicating things further, snow surfaces are not primed for wet loose activity. Recent extreme winds, freezing rain crusts, and multiple melt-freeze cycles have left surfaces that are more robust to meltdowns than soft snow.

Even though wet slabs are among the most difficult avalanche problems to forecast, one thing is clear: timing matters. Traveling early in the day is the most reliable way to reduce risk. Despite warm overnight temperatures, clear skies and radiative cooling are still allowing a refreeze in the upper snowpack. Aim to travel while surface crusts remain frozen and supportable, or just beginning to soften. East-facing terrain is the first to deteriorate, and you can buy yourself more time with slopes that get solar later in the day, such as west-facing terrain.  Earlier this week, a group of skiers on Whetstone found good stability on their ascent while crusts were frozen, but triggered a wet slab on their descent as their skis started sinking deeper into wet snow.  

Persistent slab problems remain on northerly aspects, especially near and above treeline. Recent instability has been concentrated in areas with shallower snowpacks, including the Southeast Mountains (e.g., Whetstone) and zones near Aspen that share a similar structure (e.g., Greg Mace Peak and near Snowmass). These avalanches have occurred in wind-drifted terrain with variable slab thickness.

Regions covered