Avalanche forecast

Moab

Utah Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

  • Alpine
  • Treeline
  • Below treeline
Out of date — this forecast expired 7 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

A MODERATE avalanche danger exists on steep slopes near and above treeline that face NW-N-NE-E. Human triggered avalanches failing on a persistent weak layer are possible. You are most likely to encounter this problem in wind affected terrain where old hard slabs of wind drifted snow sit on top of weak, sugary, faceted snow.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2

    Although the likelihood is decreasing, it is still possible to trigger an avalanche on a buried weak layer of faceted snow. You are most likely to encounter this problem on steep, wind drifted slopes near and above treeline that face the north half of the compass. In these areas, hard slabs of wind drifted snow from the last storm event are sitting on top of weak facets that formed at the old snow surface. Human triggered avalanches failing on this weak layer would be up to 2 feet deep and could certainly ruin your day if not more. In some cases, triggered avalanches may step down below the Christmas rain crust causing a deeper and much more dangerous avalanche. This is a low probability, high consequence scenario. The only way to truly avoid the problem is to avoid slopes steeper than 30 degrees. But if you are compelled to venture into north facing avalanche terrain, bite off small pieces first. Avoid steep convexities and areas of rocky, more radical terrain.

    In the video below, pro observer Tim Mathews gives his perspective on the current snowpack structure.

General Announcements

This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

Special Announcement

Check out this recent blog post from Forest Service UAC Director Paige Pagnucco Weak Snow: Today's Surface, Tomorrow's Avalanche Problem.

Geyser Pass Road Conditions: The road is plowed but it remains slick and snowpacked, 4x4 and good tires are recommended.

Grooming: Trails were groomed on Friday.

We are looking to reschedule our Moab Backcountry 101 Class to February 20, 21 in the hopes that we will have more snow. Click here for information and registration. Moab and Monticello locals can use the discount code MOAB-LOCAL for a 10% discount.

Recent Activity

The storm last weekend produced a decent round of natural activity including dry loose, soft slab, and hard slab avalanches. No recent avalanches have been reported.

Snow and Weather

24 Hour Snow: 0" 72 Hour Snow: 0" Season Total Snow: 44" Depth at Gold Basin: 28"

Winds on Pre-Laurel Peak: SW 5-10 Temp: 26°F

Weather

Look for clearing skies and continued dry and warm conditions. High temperatures will reach the upper 30's at 10,000 feet and light winds will blow from the northwest.

General Conditions

It's been more than a week since our last storm and the snow surface is a mixed bag. Strong winds blowing from the west and northwest last week scoured exposed, windward slopes and built hard slabs of wind drifted snow on leeward aspects. The sun has crusted over south facing slopes. The snow on sheltered, shady slopes is becoming very loose and weak and in most cases, is faceted through to the ground. This snow provides the best turning and riding but it is also prone to sluffing in very steep terrain. These loose, dry "facet-lanches" don't pack much of a punch but they could sweep you off your feet or carry you into a tree or over a cliff. Overall conditions remain thin and many south facing slopes are melting out.

SE face of Mount Peale from the upper Dark Canyon trailhead. It's pretty thin over there.

See recent observations here.

Snowpack and Weather Data

NEW! Gold Basin webcam storm stake

Gold Basin Storm Stake (10,000')

Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')

SNOTEL site near Geyser Pass Winter Trailhead (9600')

Wind Station on Pre-Laurel Peak (11,400')

NWS forecast for the La Sal Mountains.

Regions covered