Avalanche forecast

East Slopes Central

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Out of date — this forecast expired 5 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Continued rainfall will maintain the threat of unpredictable, wet avalanches. Wet avalanches of all types and sagging cornices remain a real concern as rain continues to soak the mountains and weaken the snowpack. Avoid travel on and limit your time spent under steep slopes until this warm and wet weather has run its course. 

Avalanche problems

  • Wet Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    Destructive wet avalanches remain a real concern on Friday. More heavy rain ( up to another 1 inch near Salmon La Sac!) will fall on the snowpack across the zone. The Wenatchee Mountains will also get into the action and pick up some light rainfall, which should increase water movement through the snowpack and possibly raise the likelihood of wet slabs around Mission and Blewett, since this part of the zone has mostly escaped rain so far.  While wet loose avalanches are often considered to be easier to access, they could be easy to trigger and grow large enough to be a problem in bigger terrain.

    Wet slab avalanches are notoriously hard to predict and forecast, so the best strategy to to simply avoid travel on and below steep terrain until the rain has run its course. This travel advice will also help you avoid other warming-induced hazards, such as sagging cornices, glide cracks, and chunks of hanging snow that may be present across the zone.

    (1/29/2024)

    An example of wet slab debris from a previous season. These slides can pack some weight.

    Photo: Matt Primomo

Avalanche Discussion

Weather stations closer to the cascade crest have recorded 1.4 - 3 inches of rain since the start of the warm-up. The eastern parts of the zone have largely been rain-shadowed, with the Mission Ride area only picking up less than a tenth of an inch so far. 

That's a lot of water swimming around in the snowpack, where weak layers we have been tracking since early February lurk. These layers were buried by 3-4 feet of snow on the eastern side of the zone, and nearly twice that on the western side last week. Despite not getting much rain, Mission Ridge Pro Patrol has reported these weak layers moistening and showing concerning snowpack test results. We don't know if water has similarly worked its way down through all the recent snow in the La Sac, but we can make some inferences based on how much rain has fallen there. All in all, the snowpack will not be completely stable again until it refreezes, so set your mindset accordingly.

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