Avalanche forecast

Seeley Lake

West Central Montana Avalanche Center
View on map

Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
4 · High
Treeline
4 · High
Below
2 · Moderate
Open full map
Out of date — this forecast expired 6 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Over 2 feet of dense snow fell in yesterday's storm. This snow has added significant stress to a snowpack with multiple concerning weak layers. Avalanches that fail on these layers may be triggered from long distances below, to the side of, and above steep slopes and will break widely. In upper elevation terrain, today's strong westerly winds are making quick work of the new snow, building wind slabs that will be reactive to your weight and may fail naturally. Today is a good day to steer clear of steep avalanche terrain, including the terrain exposed to avalanche hazard from above.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Very Likely
    Size
    1.5–3

    Multiple weak layers are buried in the upper 1-2 feet of the snowpack. These layers produced human-triggered and natural avalanches in this zone prior to the intense storm that impacted the region over the past 36 hours. 15-20+ inches (2 inches of SWE) of heavy snow fell here since Monday night. Layers of surface hoar are at their worst in shaded middle and upper elevation terrain, with crust+facet combinations found beneath the recent snow on sunnier slopes.

    Avalanches will be easy to trigger in steep terrain today, and may continue to fail naturally due to the ongoing wind transport and deposition. Thanks to the layers of weak snow, these slides will be able to break widely and wrap around terrain features. This produces large, unpredictable avalanches with deep piles of debris. Importantly, you will be able to trigger these slides remotely — from a distance away from the slope that avalanches. This means that you can trigger slides that fail on steep slopes above you, and run down into flat terrain below. Avoiding this problem includes avoiding terrain threatened from above. 

    (2/19/2026)

    Buried surface hoar under 10 inches of recent snow.

     

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    With 15-20 inches of snow here in the past 36 hours you'll want to be on the lookout for a variety of avalanche types involving the recent snow. Slabs failing within the new snow will be largest and most sensitive in areas where the wind is at work. Look for active snow transport and fresh cornice growth as indicators of wind-thickened slabs on the slopes below. Winds have been pinned out of the west, so these wind features will be most widespread in terrain on the east side of the compass. In steep terrain, you can expect to see sluffing within the new snow, with loose snow avalanches becoming more likely as the day warms and the sun goes to work wetting the snow surface. 

    These "smaller" avalanches will be plenty large to ruin your day or worse, and will be effective triggers for the larger persistent slab avalanches described above as they run downslope. 

Avalanche Discussion

Yesterday's storm hammered the mountains with heavy, wet snow and moderate westerly winds. Snowfall is drawing to a close this morning, but the winds will be cranking and transporting significant quantities of snow onto lee slopes. All of this snow has piled up on top of a snowpack with several concerning weak layers. 

Over the last two weeks, smaller storms have built a slab on top of weak layers formed in January and February. These weak layers produced rounds of natural and human-triggered avalanches in a spotty distribution. The main ingredient lacking in the avalanche equation has been a widespread strong slab over the weak snow underneath. Yesterday's storm changed that in many areas. Avalanches failing on these layers will be easy to trigger on steep slopes and will be triggerable from long distances away. If you are going to ride and play in low-angle terrain today, take the time to make sure that you aren't exposed to avalanches releasing on steeper slopes above you. You can trigger today's avalanches from flat terrain below steep slopes. 

Pay attention to how the snow is changing as the day progresses. The fresh snow will be seeing lots of sunshine today, melting the surface and producing rounds of natural loose snow avalanches. Strong winds will continue to build slabs, which also may fail naturaly. Both of these types of slides can be effective triggers for much larger avalanches failing on the layers of weak snow buried in the upper snowpack. 

If you get out in the new snow today, take a minute to let us know what you are seeing out there. Your observations are a key component in an accurate avalanche forecast. Information about natural and triggered avalanches, the amount of new snow and wind, and riding conditions are all very helpful. Thanks in advance for giving your time, we appreciate you. Click here to access the observation submission page.

It has been a tragic week in the world of the snow. At least 13 people have been killed in avalanches in the Western US. You can find more information on these accidents here. Let's do everything we can to not add to that ghastly number. 

Regions covered