With weak overnight crust recoveries the snowpack is on a tipping point. Without solar, danger will be lower than forecast. However, strong solar is expected later this afternoon and danger will increase to Considerable quickly when the sun comes out
Weather Forecast
Today and tomorrow expect a mix of sun and cloud, with light winds and freezing levels to 1800m. Strong solar is expected in the afternoons. Overnight temps should fall to -6 and with radiant cooling expect a decent overnight recovery. On Wed, we'll see another system arrive bringing 10cm with freezing levels to 1800m. Precip will continue on Thurs
Snowpack Summary
Above ~2300m on N'ly aspects it'll feel like winter, with winter problems. On all other aspects solar and warm temps have resulted in moist snow, and the upper snowpack consists of a series of crusts. Below treeline the snowpack is becoming isothermal. We have yet to see a proper melt-freeze cycle, the surface crusts are weak and break down quickly
Avalanche Summary
On high elevation N'ly aspects (where the skiing is still good) skiers have been triggering soft slabs. Yesterday skiers triggered a size 2 windslab in Cheops N5, a N aspect @2250m. It was 20cm deep but ran 300m. Shooting cracks also had a group turn around on Ursus Major. Loose wet avalanches continue to occur daily up to size 3, running onto fans
Confidence
Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain
Problems
Wind Slabs
Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Loose Wet
Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.
Cornices
Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.