Recent storms have brought a return to winter conditions. Keep an eye on the weather for rapid changes in temps and precip. Carefully monitor the snowpack for signs of instability and be aware of conditions changing with both elevation and aspect.
Weather Forecast
Freezing Levels below 1400m and mainly cloudy skies with intermittent light snowfall is expected for the period. Winds will be mainly out of the North.
Snowpack Summary
Several recent storms have deposited significant amounts over the well established crusts from the warming event at the start of the month. Most of these snowfall events have been followed by periods of sunshine that have re-established crusts on solar aspects. Below 1600m rain and warm temperatures have kept the snowpack warm and crusts are weak.
Avalanche Summary
Minor DRY LOOSE events have been seen on steep N aspects TL and above. Several small LOOSE WET cycles have occurred on solar aspects as new snow is heated over underlying crusts. Despite cooler temps, evidence of recent CORNICE FAILURES indicates that the sagging cornices that remain are weak and will not take much encouragement to fall.
Confidence
Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain
Problems
Storm Slabs
Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Loose Dry
Loose Dry avalanches are the release of dry unconsolidated snow and typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack. These avalanches start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-dry avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs.
Cornices
Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.