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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 11th, 2021–Mar 14th, 2021

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

Waterton Lakes.

Another spike in temperatures will destabilize the snowpack this weekend. Start your day early, minimize overhead hazard, and end before the surface crust breaks down.

The next bulletin will be issued Thursday, March 18.

Weather Forecast

We will experience rapid warming this weekend, with freezing levels rising to 2600m on Saturday, and 3000m on Sunday. Paired with sunny skies this will rapidly destabilize the snowpack, but temperatures should dip to near valley bottom overnight offering limited recovery. Winds will generally be light from the southwest.

Snowpack Summary

A crust exists on the surface to ridgetop on solar aspects and at low elevations breaking down during the day. This tops 30-50cm dense snow above of the Feb 14 facet layer which is above hard surfaces in most places. The remainder of the midpack is made up of dense facets and decomposing crusts, with early season ice crusts forming the base.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches observed this week, but we expect that to change as freezing levels rise again through the weekend.

Confidence

The weather pattern is stable

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.