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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 16th, 2021–Mar 17th, 2021

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Purcells.

Spring-like diurnal conditions exist and the rating reflects the highest hazard level anticipated during the day. Pay attention to steep south facing slopes as they heat up in the afternoon and possibly destabilize. Give looming cornices a wide berth from above and below. 

Confidence

High - Confidence is due to a stable weather pattern; little change is expected for several days.

Weather Forecast

A ridge of high pressure will remain anchored over the Interior until Thursday bringing warmer temperatures and sunny skies. 

The typical spring-like diurnal weather pattern will hold afternoon alpine temperatures near -2 and freezing levels around 1500-2000 m. Overnight periods will see the freezing levels drop back to the valley bottom.

An approaching Pacific frontal system will move onto the coast Wednesday bringing unsettled weather and new snow to the Interior regions by Friday and through the weekend. 

Avalanche Summary

There have been no recent avalanche reports from this region. Sunshine and daytime warming may initiate loose wet avalanches on steep solar slopes and weaken cornices. 

Snowpack Summary

Dry snow can be found on shaded aspects at upper elevations. On solar aspects and at lower elevations expect crusty snow in the morning and soft, moist snow in the afternoon. Lingering wind slabs and large cornices may still pose a hazard close to alpine ridgelines.

A persistent weak layer of facets 40-60 cm deep that was buried in mid-February was reactive in the north of the region earlier this month but since the first week of March, only a couple of avalanches have been reported on this layer resulting from large triggers such as cornice fall. There are several other weak layers deeper in the snowpack composed of old surface hoar, facets and/or crusts, all of which have been recently unreactive.

Terrain and Travel

  • A moist or wet snow surface, pinwheeling and natural avalanches are all indicators of a weakening snowpack.
  • Back off slopes as the surface becomes moist or wet with rising temperatures.
  • Avoid exposure to slopes that have cornices overhead.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.