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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Apr 9th, 2023–Apr 10th, 2023

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

South Rockies, St. Mary, Bull, Elkford East, Elkford West.

Prepare for a wet and stormy day. Avoid avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from rain, snow or wind.

Observe your local conditions, and let that guide your terrain choice. Forecasted snow and rainfall amounts are uncertain.

Confidence

Low

Avalanche Summary

No recent avalanches have been reported. Expect avalanche activity to increase on Monday with the arrival of a wet storm.

If you head out in the backcountry, let us know what you are seeing by submitting a report to the Mountain Information Network.

Snowpack Summary

10-15 cm of recent snow in the alpine covers settling, dry snow on shaded (northerly) aspects, and a frozen crust on solar aspects. At treeline, this new snow is likely to be denser, shallower, and moist.

Below treeline, 10-15 mm of rain starts to soak frozen crusts or already wet surfaces, and will be eating away at the snowpack at low elevations.

The mid snowpack is generally settled and strong, except in areas with snow depths less than 150 cm. In these lower snow areas, the mid-pack is likely weaker and more faceted.

The lower snowpack includes a layer of large, weak facets and/or depth hoar crystals.

Weather Summary

Snow/Rain amounts for the incoming storm are uncertain. Weather models are not agreeing on how widespread or intense the precipitation will be. Prepare to continually evaluate the conditions, and change plans as necessary.

Sunday Night

Cloudy. 5-10 cm of snow expected in the alpine, rain below 2000 m. Treeline temperature around 0 °C. Light to moderate southwest ridgetop wind, trending to strong at higher elevations.

Monday

Cloudy. 15-20 cm of snow expected in the alpine, rain below 2000 m. Possible isolated areas of 30mm or more. Treeline temperature around 0°C. Light to moderate southwest ridgetop wind, trending to strong at higher elevations.

Tuesday

Mostly Cloudy. Moderate to heavy rain overnight turning to snow as the snow/rain line drops to 1000 m. 5-10mm, possible isolated areas of 40 mm or more. Light southwest ridgetop wind trending to strong at higher elevations.

Wednesday

Mostly cloudy. 5-10 cm of snow expected. Treeline temperature around -5°C. Light variable ridgetop wind.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Storm slab size and sensitivity to triggering will likely increase through the day.
  • Be careful to keep storm day fever from luring you out into bigger terrain features.
  • A moist or wet snow surface, pinwheeling and natural avalanches are all indicators of a weakening snowpack.
  • Avoid thin areas like rock outcroppings where you're most likely to trigger avalanches failing on deep weak layers.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.