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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 6th, 2013–Feb 7th, 2013

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

South Columbia.

Confidence

Good

Weather Forecast

Thursday: A weak upper trough moves through the region bringing unsettled conditions and light snow accumulations 5-10 cm. Ridgetop winds will light and blowing from the West. Treeline temperatures near -3 and freezing levels around 700 m. Friday: Ridge of high pressure moves in with residual moisture and cloudy cover bringing only trace snow amounts. Ridgetop winds will switch and blow light from the North. Freezing levels stationary around 700 m.Saturday: Ridging continues accompanied by a fast moving, short lived weak disturbance. Trace of snow expected with ridgetop winds blowing moderate from the NW. Treeline temperature near -4 and freezing levels around 900 m falling to valley bottom overnight.

Avalanche Summary

Natural avalanche activity continues with loose dry and slab avalanches up to size 2. North through NorthEast aspects producing the slab activity, and South generally producing the loose dry avalanches and sluffing from steep terrain features. Rider triggered avalanches up to size 2 continue to be triggered on the early February interface and the January 26th interface that is buried 40-80 cm below the surface.  One skier triggered slab avalanche size 2.5 was initiated from a North aspect at 2100 m, failing on the Feb. interface.

Snowpack Summary

Wind slabs continue to develop in the alpine and at treeline on lee slopes and behind terrain features. Below the surface a couple persistent weak layers exist. Most recently, 20-40 cm of new snow buries a surface hoar layer and a sun crust layer that developed at the beginning of February. Lower down (40-80 cm) sits the January 23rd interface also comprising of surface hoar, and crusts.  These layers continue to be reactive especially on steep solar aspects, treeline and below treeline over steep convex rolls or sheltered slopes where surface hoar would most likely to form. The mid-pack is well settled and strong. At lower elevations a melt-freeze crust has formed due to the high freezing levels from last weekend.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.