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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Apr 28th, 2023–Apr 29th, 2023

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.

Regions

Glacier.

If the elevated avalanche hazard doesn't deter you, hopefully the terrible travel conditions will.

It's a good time to tune up you bike, dust off your climbing shoes, or just dive into some spring cleaning.

Confidence

High

Avalanche Summary

Numerous loose snow and slab avalanches were observed on Friday, during the heat of the day. Avalanches were up to size 3 (significantly larger than in previous days) and are starting to gouge deeper into the snowpack. A deeper slab avalanche on the SW side of Cheops is suspected to have failed on the Mar. 31st crust.

Avalanches are expected to continue to increase in size as the snowpack warms.

Snowpack Summary

At upper elevations, warm temperatures and minimal overnight refreeze is weakening a moist upper snowpack. Several crusts buried in the top 50cm of the snowpack are beginning to break down as the snow warms. 20-40cm above the ground, the Nov 17 basal weakness can still be found in many areas.

Below treeline, the entire snowpack has become isothermal, and is losing strength as the day warms.

Weather Summary

Warm, sunny weather through the weekend, with above seasonal temps and high freezing levels (FZL).

Tonight: Clear, Alpine Low 7°C, FZL 3500m, Light S ridgetop wind.

Sat: Mainly sunny, Alpine High 12°C, Light SW wind, FZL 3600m.

Sun: Mixed sun and cloud, Low 9°C, High 15°C, FZL 3600m.

Mon: Isolated showers, Low 9°C, High 15°C, FZL 3700m.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • The more the snow feels like a slurpy, the more likely loose wet avalanches will become.
  • If triggered loose wet avalanches may step down to deeper layers resulting in larger avalanches.
  • Avoid exposure to overhead avalanche terrain as temperatures increase.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Wet Slabs

Wet Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) that is generally moist or wet when the flow of liquid water weakens the bond between the slab and the surface below (snow or ground). They often occur during prolonged warming events and/or rain-on-snow events. Wet Slabs can be very unpredictable and destructive.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.