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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 10th, 2021–Jan 11th, 2021

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

South Coast.

Reactive slabs are expected above the snow-rain line and loose wet avalanches may occur below. Travel in avalanche terrain is not recommended anywhere you find 30+ cm of new snow.

Confidence

Moderate - Forecast precipitation (either snow or rain) amounts are uncertain. Uncertainty is due to difficult to forecast freezing levels.

Weather Forecast

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with snowfall, accumulation 20 to 30 cm, 40 to 60 km/h southwest wind, treeline temperature -1 C, freezing level 1300 m.

MONDAY: Cloudy with snowfall, accumulation 20 to 40 cm, 40 to 60 km/h southwest wind, treeline temperature 0 C, freezing level 1400 m.

TUESDAY: Cloudy with snow switching to rain, accumulation 50 to 80 mm, 60 km/h southwest wind, treeline temperature 1 C, freezing level rising to 2000 m.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with snowfall then clearing, accumulation 10 to 20 cm, 20 km/h west wind, treeline temperature -2 C, freezing level 1000 m.

Avalanche Summary

Small loose dry activity was reported on the North Shore on Friday, where dry snow overlay a melt-freeze crust.

Avalanche activity is expected to spike on Sunday night into Monday during and after the storm, with loose wet activity below the snow-rain line and storm and wind slab activity above.

Snowpack Summary

Around 40 to 70 mm of precipitation is forecast to accumulate Sunday night into Monday, with it falling as snow above around 1400 m and rain below. Above the snow-rain line, storm and wind slabs are expected to rapidly form and be reactive to riders. Below the snow-rain line, wet loose avalanches could be triggered by riders in steep terrain.

The remainder of the snowpack is well-consolidated.

Terrain and Travel

  • Travel in alpine terrain is not recommended.
  • Closely monitor how the new snow is bonding to the old surface.
  • Storm snow and wind is forming touchy slabs. Use caution in lee areas in the alpine and treeline.
  • Watch for unstable snow on specific terrain features, especially when the snow is moist or wet.
  • Use caution above cliffs and terrain traps where even small avalanches may have severe consequences.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.