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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 1st, 2021–Jan 2nd, 2021

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

South Coast Inland.

A big storm is expected to bring lots of snow, strong winds and warm temps. Avoid avalanche terrain at all elevations.

A complex snowpack led to several incidents in the last week, including a fatal avalanche near Pemberton on Monday. 

Confidence

Moderate - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain.

Weather Forecast

FRIDAY NIGHT - Snow 15-20 cm / southwest wind 50-70, gusting to 90 km/h / alpine low temperature near -2 / freezing level 1400 m

SATURDAY - Snow, 20-30 cm, with another 15-30 cm overnight / southwest wind 60-80 km/h / alpine high temperature near -1 / freezing level 1300 m

SUNDAY - Flurries, 5-10 cm / west wind 30-50 km/h / alpine high temperature near -2 / freezing level 1200 m

MONDAY - Mainly cloudy with scattered flurries, 5 cm / southwest wind 20-40 km/h / alpine high temperature near -3 / freezing level 900 m 

Avalanche Summary

Avalanches are expected to be widespread on Saturday. 

There was a fatal avalanche north of Pemberton in the Railroad Pass area on Monday that resulted in two fatalities. It was reported to be a size 2 persistent slab avalanche on a west aspect, around 1650 m. The RCMP press release can be viewed here and the Avalanche Canada report can be found here.

A size 2 avalanche was triggered on Monday by a skier on a northwest aspect in the alpine on Mt. Matier (Duffey). The avalanche occurred on a northwest aspect and was likely a wind slab avalanche. It carried the skier over cliffs resulting in several injuries. A MIN report detailing this incident can be found here. 

A few persistent slab avalanches were reported last week, mostly in the north of the region near the Hurley, but also near Allison Pass. They were triggered by riders, heavy machinery, and naturally. The slabs were generally 60 to 90 cm deep, around 2000 m, and released on the weak layers described in the snowpack summary.

Snowpack Summary

15-20 cm on Friday night with an additional 20-30 cm on Saturday will bring recent storm snow totals to around 50-80 cm. This snow may be sitting on surface hoar below treeline. Large snowfall amounts combined with strong southwest winds will most likely form widespread and reactive storm slabs.

A melt-freeze crust from early December is found around 60 to 150 cm deep in the snowpack. This crust may have surface hoar or sugary faceted grains sitting above it. This persistent weak layer is most prevalent in the north (e.g., Duffey Lake, Hurley) and found to a lesser extent in the south of the region. 

The remainder of the snowpack is generally well settled.

Terrain and Travel

  • Avoid all avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow and wind.
  • Be aware of the potential for large avalanches due to the presence of a persistent slab.
  • Storm slabs in motion may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.