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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 14th, 2021–Jan 15th, 2021

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Jasper.

Despite the lack of activity and signs of stability, allow the 40-50cm of new snow to settle and bond the next few days. Now is not the time to test large inviting slopes as many are untested. Keep to treeline and below for the short-term.

Weather Forecast

Friday will be clouds and flurries, -7C, and 20-50km/hr West winds. Saturday will bring the same and -11 to -9, 15-45km/hr West winds. Sunday will be similar but a little more sun.

Snowpack Summary

January 13th brought upwards of 55cm of new snow in the region. It has settled to 20-30cm with mild temperatures but being wind effected.  The storm snow is uncertain but could be a temperature or rain crust or FC and/or SH with an inconsistent reactivity. The mid pack is supportive. Near the ground it is weak facets and depth hoar.

Avalanche Summary

No new naturals were noted on Thursday. Wednesday's explosive control action had surprisingly little results. During and after Tuesday-Wednesdays' storm, a significant natural cycle up to size 3.5 was noted occurring mostly in the Alpine open features South through Westerly aspects.

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Confidence

Due to the number and quality of field observations

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Dry

Loose Dry avalanches are the release of dry unconsolidated snow and typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack. These avalanches start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-dry avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.