Avalanche forecast

Jasper

Jan 15 – 16, 2021
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Sun
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate

Highlights

Despite the lack of activity and signs of stability, allow the 40-50cm of new snow to settle and bond the next few days. Now is not the time to test large inviting slopes as many are untested. Keep to treeline and below for the short-term.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2.5

    Wind slabs mainly on but not limited to lee aspects in the alpine and open tree line from the 40-50cm storm snow and current winds. It is highly variable in the alpine. Caution thick to thin locations being ripe for human triggering.

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–3

    Use caution around thin to thick areas where buried deeper weak layers could be triggered. The surface hoar layer down 40-70cm seems unreactive and spotty distribution but keep it on your radar especially with the new snow 50cm load.

  • Loose Dry

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible - Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Ice climbers be wary of this problem as even small avalanches can quickly gain volume and have serious consequences. The storm slow remains loose and unconsolidated. Watch for triggers that would wake this problem up such as rising temperatures.

Weather Forecast

Friday will be clouds and flurries, -7C, and 20-50km/hr West winds. Saturday will bring the same and -11 to -9, 15-45km/hr West winds. Sunday will be similar but a little more sun.

Snowpack Summary

January 13th brought upwards of 55cm of new snow in the region. It has settled to 20-30cm with mild temperatures but being wind effected.  The storm snow is uncertain but could be a temperature or rain crust or FC and/or SH with an inconsistent reactivity. The mid pack is supportive. Near the ground it is weak facets and depth hoar.

Avalanche Summary

No new naturals were noted on Thursday. Wednesday's explosive control action had surprisingly little results. During and after Tuesday-Wednesdays' storm, a significant natural cycle up to size 3.5 was noted occurring mostly in the Alpine open features South through Westerly aspects.

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Confidence

Due to the number and quality of field observations

Regions covered