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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 13th, 2021–Jan 16th, 2021

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Waterton Lakes.

Windslabs are widespread and ripe for human triggering. Though the weather is improving don't be tempted into committing terrain by blue skies, and continue to avoid overhead hazard, especially on solar aspects.

Weather Forecast

Thursday: Cloudy with sunny periods. Moderate NW winds, alpine high of -12

Friday: Cloudy with sunny periods and an alpine inversion. Strong to Extreme W winds, alpine high 0 early in the morning dropping to -5 in the afternoon

Saturday: Mainly cloudy with isolated flurries. Moderate NW winds, alpine high -5

Snowpack Summary

Expect to find at least 30cm of new snow redistributed by strong SW winds, with wet snow freezing into a crust near the surface below 2000m. Upper elevations are heavily wind affected, and new windslabs will be found in lee areas. The Dec 9th crust can be found down 70-100cm at Cameron Lake. Areas east of the divide hold a thin & faceted snowpack.

Avalanche Summary

Several size 2-2.5 avalanches were observed on a road patrol of the Akamina Parkway on Wednesday that likely failed during the warmest part of the storm.

Confidence

Due to the number of field observations

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.