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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 2nd, 2024–Mar 3rd, 2024

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

Lizard-Flathead, South Rockies, Akamina, Flathead, Lizard, Bull, Crowsnest North, Crowsnest South, Elkford East, Elkford West.

The snowpack remains primed for human triggering. Conservative terrain selection remains critical.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

Numerous natural, skier, and explosive-triggered avalanches up to size 3 have been a daily occurrence over the last few days. Several of these avalanches have failed on or scrubbed down to the crust/facet layer buried early in February.

Looking forward, it remains likely that humans could trigger high-consequence slab avalanches.

Snowpack Summary

As much as 100 cm of new snow has accumulated over the last week. Strong winds and mild temperatures during the recent storm formed touchy slabs. These slabs may sit atop various weak layers, including surface hoar in wind-sheltered terrain, and a thin melt-freeze crust on sun-exposed slopes.

A widespread crust that formed in early February is buried around 80 to 140 cm deep. Weak faceted grains may be found above the crust, which is a recipe for high-consequence avalanches.

The remainder of the snowpack is generally settled.

Weather Summary

Saturday Night

Mostly cloudy with 0 to 2 cm of snow. 10 to 30 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -14 °C.

Sunday

Mostly cloudy. 20 to 40 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -12 °C.

Monday

Mostly cloudy with 0 to 4 cm of snow. 20 to 40 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -10 °C.

Tuesday

Partly cloudy with 0 to 2 cm of snow. 10 to 30 km/h west ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -10 °C.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Keep in mind that human triggering potential persists as natural avalanching tapers off.
  • Fresh snow rests on a problematic persistent slab, don't let good riding lure you into complacency.
  • Remote triggering is a concern, watch out for adjacent and overhead slopes.
  • Persistent slabs have potential to pull back to lower angle terrain.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.