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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 18th, 2024–Mar 19th, 2024

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

Glacier.

As the freezing level drops, natural avalanche activity will taper off, but the snowpack has absorbed a lot of heat over the last few days and will need some time to cool off. Avoid steep slopes if the snow is moist or slushy.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

A widespread natural avalanche cycle has occurred over the last 4 days with warm temps and high freezing levels with numerous size 3-3.5 from all aspects. The most notable being a size 4 from the West Face of Mt. Cheops. These avalanches were failing within the moist upper snowpack and stepping down to the persistent weak layer (over 1m deep).

Natural avalanche activity will decrease as the temperatures drop back down to seasonal norms over the next few days.

Snowpack Summary

There will likely be a crust on all aspects and elevations, thicker on solar aspects and becoming thinner with elevation on polar aspects.

The March 8th interface is down ~40cm and may be a crust on steep solar aspects.

80-140cm of settled snow sits above a sugary facet layer. These facets are poorly bonded to the widespread, firm crust from Feb 3rd. This is a significant persistent weak layer and will be a concern for the foreseeable future.

Weather Summary

The freezing level will gradually drop Monday night, ushering in the desired refreeze all you shredsters are looking for after 4 days of above zero temps above tree line.

Tuesday will be mainly cloudy with light south winds and a freezing level up to 1900m. A pacific low swings into our region on Wednesday with ~10cm overnight and another 15cm on Thursday. Temps will continue to drop through the week.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Remember that in the spring strong solar radiation and warm temperatures can weaken the snow in a matter of minutes.
  • Keep in mind that human triggering potential persists as natural avalanching tapers off.
  • Avoid exposure to slopes that have cornices overhead.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.