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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 3rd, 2024–Mar 4th, 2024

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

South Coast Inland, Birkenhead, Duffey, South Chilcotin, Stein, Taseko.

Continue to choose low angle and supported terrain features.

Watch for strong sunshine, even brief periods can rapidly increase avalanche danger and produce natural avalanches.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

Remotely triggered avalanches continue, to size 2, failing on the buried facet layer up to 80 cm deep in recent reports.

A recent natural cycle was observed to size 3 at alpine and treeline elevations, where wind or sun was a possible trigger. We expect human triggering remains likely.

Check out this MIN for an overview of conditions, including a good reminder on treewells. Thanks to all for sharing your observations and learnables!

Snowpack Summary

Storm totals of 40-80 cm are beginning to settle, with wind effect in exposed, high terrain.

Multiple weak layers exist in the mid snowpack. The most concerning layer is found down 40 to 100 cm with a layer of facets (or in isolated areas, preserved surface hoar) above a crust. This layer is likely most concerning at treeline.

This layer continues to show sensitivity to human triggers, and will take time to begin to settle and bond.

Weather Summary

Sunday Night

Cloudy with flurries, 5 cm in most terrain, higher in localised areas. 10-20km/hr easterly winds. Freezing levels fall to valley bottom.

Monday

Cloudy with possible sunny periods and isolated flurries. Light and variable winds switch to 20 km/hr westerlies in the afternoon. Treeline temperature -11 °C. Freezing levels at valley bottom.

Tuesday

Mostly clear skies. 20-40 km/hr northwest winds. Treeline temperature -10 °C. Freezing levels at valley bottom.

Wednesday

Mostly clear skies. 10-20 km/hr northwest winds. Treeline temperature -10 °C. Freezing levels at valley bottom.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Minimize exposure to sun-exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong.
  • Keep in mind that human triggering potential persists as natural avalanching tapers off.
  • Don't be too cavalier with decision making, storm slabs may remain sensitive to human triggering.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.