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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 9th, 2020–Feb 10th, 2020

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

South Coast.

It is uncertain how well the recent storm snow bonds with the underlying crust. Slabs might still be sensitive to human triggers. Investigate the bond of the recent snow before committing to high consequence terrain.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the limited number of field observations.

Weather Forecast

Sunday Night: Clear, light to moderate north wind, treeline high -6 C, freezing level 800 m.

Monday: Mostly sunny, light northwest wind, treeline high -3 C, freezing level 1300 m.

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy, moderate to strong northwest wind, treeline high 0 C, freezing level 1000 m.

Wednesday: Mix of sun and cloud, light northwest wind, treeline high 0 C, freezing level 900 m.

Avalanche Summary

A small skier triggered slab avalanche was reported on Saturday (see this MIN report).

No new avalanches were observed on Friday. 

A few small (size 1) avalanches were triggered by skiers on Thursday. 

Snowpack Summary

The recent storm snow adds up to 30-50 cm and sits on a thick rain crust. It is uncertain how well the snow bonds with the crust. Several observed avalanches released within the storm snow and some slid on the crust. The snowpack below the crust consists of moist to wet snow and is well settled. Snowpack depths are suspected to be in the range of 150-250 cm around the peaks of the north shore mountains (1400 m), tapering quickly with elevation to almost nothing below 1000 m.

Terrain and Travel

  • Don't be too cavalier with decision making, storm slabs may remain sensitive to human triggering.
  • A moist or wet snow surface, pinwheeling and natural avalanches are all indicators of a weakening snowpack.
  • Avoid terrain traps such as gullies and cliffs where the consequence of any avalanche could be serious.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.