Avalanche forecast

Lizard-Flathead

Feb 9 – 10, 2020Avalanche Canada
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Wed
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

New snow + continued strong wind at upper elevations mean that many slopes are primed for human triggered avalanches Sunday. We need to let the new snow settle and stabilize for a day or two before stepping out into complex terrain.

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2.5

    Storm slabs are forming above a widespread crust, these slabs were quite touchy Saturday morning and natural avalanche activity to size 2 has been reported. Natural activity will likely slow down Sunday but many slopes will be primed for human triggering. Time to retreat to simple terrain choices and resist the urge to step out into complex terrain. Strong northwest wind is expected to form fresh sensitive wind slabs at upper elevations through the day Sunday.

Confidence

Low - Uncertainty is due to the speed, direction, or duration of the wind and its effect on the snowpack.

Weather Forecast

Aside from a few bouts of potentially strong wind, we’re moving into a rather benign weather pattern for the foreseeable future.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Freezing level at valley bottom, light variable wind, no significant precipitation expected.

SUNDAY: A few clouds, freezing level rising to 1000 m, light southwest wind at lower elevations, potential for strong northwest wind at the highest elevations, no significant precipitation expected.

MONDAY: Clear skies, freezing level rising to 800 m in the afternoon, light variable wind, no significant precipitation expected.

TUESDAY: A few clouds, freezing level rising to around 1200 m in the afternoon, moderate northwest wind, no significant precipitation expected.

Avalanche Summary

Early reports from Saturday indicate widespread natural storm slab avalanches to size 2 that released during the storm. Storm slabs were reportedly quite touchy Saturday morning, likley running on the old crust. Strong northeast wind is moving snow into wind slabs. 

Fragile cornices and one large cornice fall have been reported over the past week.

Snowpack Summary

The Friday Night/Saturday storm produced 15 to 25 cm of warm storm snow that has been formed into slabs in wind exposed terrain by ongoing northeast winds. This snow rests on previously wind affected snow and a thick rain crust that exists up to roughly 2100 m. In many areas this capping crust extends to mountaintops. Sheltered areas now have 15-30 cm of snow above the crust. The bottom 20 cm of the snowpack consists of basal facets and decomposing crusts that have not been an active avalanche problem since December, but could reemerge as a problem after sustained warming.

Terrain and Travel

  • Storm snow and wind is forming touchy slabs. Use caution in lee areas in the alpine and treeline.
  • Be especially cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.

Regions covered