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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 13th, 2020–Mar 14th, 2020

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

South Coast Inland.

Expect to find wind slabs in atypical terrain due to northeast wind. Cold air may limit the effect of the sun, but still apply caution if the snow surface moistens.

Confidence

High - Confidence is due to a stable weather pattern with little change expected.

Weather Forecast

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy with flurries in the south of the region, accumulation 2 cm and local amounts of 10 cm possible, moderate to strong northeast wind, alpine temperature -16 C.

SATURDAY: Clear skies, moderate northeast wind, alpine temperature -15 C.

SUNDAY: Clear skies, light to moderate northeast wind, alpine temperature -11 C.

MONDAY: Clear skies, light to moderate northeast wind, alpine temperature -2 C, freezing level rising to 1800 m.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches were observed on Friday. A recent wind slab avalanche was observed on Thursday, as seen in this MIN. 

It may be possible for humans to trigger wind slab avalanches as fresh wind slabs form from strong northeast wind.

Snowpack Summary

Wind slabs may be found on all aspects due to variable wind directions. Recent wind has blown from the northeast, forming fresh wind slabs in south to southwest terrain features at higher elevations. In sheltered terrain, about 30 cm of snow may overly a melt-freeze crust and potentially small surface hoar crystals in isolated features.

In the northern part of the region (i.e., Duffey/Hurley/Gold Bridge), a deep instability may linger at the base of the snowpack. It has not produced an avalanche since February 17th. Human-triggering is unlikely, though if one were to trigger the layer, it would likely be in a thin, shallow, rocky spot. A large load, such as from a cornice fall, or sustained warm temperatures have the potential to trigger this layer.

Terrain and Travel

  • Be aware of highly variable recent wind loading patterns.
  • If triggered, wind slabs avalanches may step down to deeper layers resulting in larger avalanches.
  • Pay attention to cornices and give them a wide berth when traveling on or below ridges.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.