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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 10th, 2020–Feb 11th, 2020

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Lizard-Flathead.

Natural avalanche activity has ceased, but human triggered slab avalanches remain possible, especially on features immediately lee of ridge crest. If you are increasing your exposure to avalanche terrain, do it gradually as you gather information.

Confidence

Moderate - Confidence is due to a stable weather pattern; little change is expected for several days.

Weather Forecast

Aside from a few bouts of potentially strong wind, we continue to be in a rather benign weather pattern which is expected to be with us for the foreseeable future.

MONDAY NIGHT: Freezing level at valley bottom, moderate west/southwest wind, no significant precipitation expected.

TUESDAY: Overcast, freezing level rising to around 1500 m in the afternoon, moderate to strong west/southwest wind, 2 to 8 cm of snow possible.

WEDNESDAY: Scattered cloud cover, freezing level near valley bottom, light variable wind, trace of precipitation possible.

THURSDAY: Scattered cloud cover, freezing level rising to around 1500 m in the afternoon, moderate southwest wind, trace of precipitation possible.

Avalanche Summary

On Sunday no new natural avalanches were reported but smaller wind slab avalanches to size 1.5 were human triggered on northeast facing features around 1900 m with an average depth of 25 cm.

On Saturday storm slab avalanches to size 2 were widespread. They ran naturally and were intentionally triggered by avalanche control work on all aspects.  

Fragile cornices and one large cornice fall have been reported over the past 10 days.

Snowpack Summary

The weekend storm produced 15 to 25 cm of warm storm snow. This snow has been formed into slabs in wind exposed terrain by previously strong winds that were largely out of the northeast. This snow rests on previously wind affected snow and a thick rain crust that exists up to roughly 2100 m. In many areas this capping crust extends to mountaintops. Sheltered areas now have 15-30 cm of snow above the crust. The bottom 20 cm of the snowpack consists of basal facets and decomposing crusts that have not been an active avalanche problem since December, but could reemerge as a problem after sustained warming.

Terrain and Travel

  • Expect slab conditions to change drastically as you move into wind exposed terrain.
  • Caution around slopes that are exposed to cornices overhead.
  • Watch for fresh storm slabs building throughout the day.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.