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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 2nd, 2024–Feb 3rd, 2024

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Moyie, St. Mary.

The good news...❄️ winter is back! ❄️ The bad news... storm snow may not bond well with the crust.

Dial back your terrain choices as storm snow accumulates this weekend.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

Natural avalanche cycles continued throughout this week with rain, warming, and sunshine weakening the upper snowpack.

Moving forward avalanche activity will become more likely as storm snow accumulates.

Snowpack Summary

Up to 20 cm of new snow is expected to accumulate over Saturday. This will fall over moist snow at low elevations, or over a crust at higher elevations.

A layer of facets (and small surface hoar in some areas) is buried 30-60 cm deep and a layer of facets on a crust is buried 80-100 cm deep. The cooling trend is expected to strengthen these layers, but we are uncertain how quickly this will happen.

Weather Summary

Friday Night

Cloudy with up to 5 cm of snow expected. Light and variable winds. Freezing levels drop to around 1500 m.

Saturday

Cloudy with 10-20 cm of snow expected over the day. Freezing levels remain around 1500 m. Treeline temperatures around -2 °C. 20-50 km/hr easterly winds.

Sunday

By Sunday morning another 10 cm is possible. Freezing levels reach 1300 m again. Treeline temperatures around -4 °C. Southwest winds, 10-20 km/h.

Monday

A mix of sun and cloud with flurries possible. Freezing levels reach 1000 m over the day. Treeline temperatures around-2 °C. Southeast winds 20-40 km/h.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Watch for fresh storm slabs building throughout the day.
  • Storm slab size and sensitivity to triggering will likely increase through the day.
  • Storm snow and wind is forming touchy slabs. Use caution in lee areas in the alpine and treeline.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.