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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 15th, 2026–Mar 16th, 2026

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

North Columbia, South Columbia, Clemina, Esplanade, Jordan, North Monashee, North Selkirk, West Purcell, Badshot-Battle, Central Selkirk, Goat, Gold, Retallack, Valhalla, Whatshan.

Of all the regions about to get walloped by this storm, the central Columbias is our top contender for weak layers producing large, destructive avalanches. Steer clear of avalanche terrain.

Confidence

Moderate

  • We are uncertain about forecast snowfall amounts.
  • We are uncertain about how persistent slabs will react to the forecast weather.

Avalanche Summary

Large (size 2 to 3) persistent slab avalanches continued on Friday and, to a lesser extent, on Saturday. Remote triggers up to 250 m away figure into some reports.

Our early March layer also produced storm slabs 50 and 80 cm deep in the Selkirks near Revelstoke. The deeper one was a remotely triggered size 2.5 on a north aspect at 1800 m.

There were also many large storm slabs triggered with explosives north of Trout Lake.

Snowpack Summary

24 to 45 cm of new snow should accumulate by end-of day Monday, adding to 60 to 100 cm around Revelstoke and 30 to 50 cm farther south since March 7. It has been redistributed by southwest winds in exposed higher elevation terrain and sits on old wind-affected surfaces at treeline and above or on a crust, which extends up to 1900 m near Highway 1, closer to 2200 m in the south.

Three problem layers of surface hoar, facets and/or crust formed in January and February are in the mid-snowpack, 1 to 2 m deep. They produced numerous destructive avalanches during the weekend warmup and sporadic releases in the days since, making them difficult to rule out, even with factors like a bridging crust at lower elevations.

Weather Summary

Sunday Night
Cloudy with flurries bringing 10 to 15 cm of new snow. 30 to 50 km/h southwest ridgetop wind, increasing. Treeline temperature -10 °C.

Monday
Cloudy with steadier snowfall bringing 15 to 30 cm of new snow, greatest in the north. 40 to 60 km/h southwest ridgetop wind, increasing. Treeline temperature to -4 °C by end of day.

Tuesday
Cloudy with increasingly wet snowfall bringing 15 to 30 cm of new snow to higher alpine, rain eventually as high as 2400 m. 50 to 80 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature reaching 4 °C. with freezing level climbing from 1000 to 2500 m.

Wednesday
Mostly cloudy with wet flurries easing after 10 to 20 cm of alpine snow overnight, rain below about 2300 m. 40 to 60 km/h southwest ridgetop wind, easing. Treeline temperature 2 °C with freezing level between 2300 m and 2600 m.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Use increased caution at all elevations. Storm snow is forming touchy slabs.
  • Storm slab size and sensitivity to triggering will likely increase through the day.
  • Be aware of the potential for large avalanches due to buried weak layers.
  • Back off slopes as the surface becomes moist or wet with rising temperatures.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.