Hazard may change dependent on the amount of new snow. More snow than forecast may push the hazard rating higher than forecast.
Confidence
Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain on Wednesday
Weather Forecast
Synopsis: Pacific storms are set to replace the cold clear weather from the last 4 weeks.Monday Night: Freezing level at valley bottom. 5 to 10cm of precip. Wind: Light to Mod SW |Tuesday: Freezing Level: 900m, Precip: 5/10 cm Wind: Light/Mod SW Wednesday: Freezing Level: 1200m; Precip: 15/20 cm Wind: Mod to Strong SW to WestThursday: Freezing level 1300m Precip. trace Wind Mod to Strong, S to SW ,
Avalanche Summary
Surface sluffing and small wind slabs have been reported in the past few days.
Snowpack Summary
The last recent snowfall, (Jan 29t) has facetted quickly in the cold temps. Surface hoar has formed as well in protected areas. In wind exposed terrain, especially in the alpine, winds continue to form shallow wind slabs that are most prevalent immediately lee of ridge crest. These variable wind slabs should stick around a bit longer than we're accustomed to as they are resting on a weak layer composed of large grained surface hoar (widespread in most sheltered and shaded areas at all elevations), a sun crust on open south facing slopes, faceted grains (in colder areas or areas with a thinner snowpack), or a combination of the above.Most of the snowpack is generally well consolidated. However, in thinner snowpack areas a facet/crust weakness may exist near the bottom of the snowpack. The depth of this layer makes human triggering unlikely, but the consequences of doing so could be disastrous.
Problems
Storm Slabs
Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.