The Forecast team considers the likelihood of triggering is going down but the consequence is severe if anything is triggered. As Senior Forecaster Cory Boschman says "ski lightly and think conservatively".
Watch for wind loading at ridge tops and in the alpine with recent moderate West and SW winds. Winds may increase to 75km/hr on Saturday and there is a lot of snow available for transport.
60-80cm of storm snow from Nov 13-15th has settled into a persistent slab condition. Field tests are showing sudden collapse on a crust down 50-80cm over weak facets. The snowpack arrived only four days ago and the prudent thing to do is be cautious.
Saturday will be cloudy and flurries, 4 cm of snow, -9 degrees and 20 km/h gusting to 60 km/h W to SW winds. Sunday will be similar to Saturday with less winds. The sun may poke out on Monday and no new snow is expected.
Surface hoar is forming up to 4mm on the 60-80cm of storm snow that fell Nov 13-15th. The storm snow has settled into a persistent slab particularly where the wind has influence. A 2cm thick crust 80cm down is found up to 2500m or higher. Weak facets are below the crust resulting in sudden collapse test results. This should cue you to be cautious.
Friday's team observed two size 2 persistent slab avalanches on windloaded features in the alpine and treeline. On Wednesday numerous avalanches up to size 3.5, generally from steep alpine features, were noted. They occurred during or at the end of the Nov 13-15th storm. One 800m wide avalanche was caused by explosives at tree-line on Tuesday.
