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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Apr 5th, 2022–Apr 6th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

South Columbia.

 Start and finish your day early. Warm temperature and sunshine will increase the likelihood of avalanche activity, especially on steep slopes that are baking in the sun. 

 A conservative approach to terrain is a great way to ease into your day while assessing along the way. 

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the timing or intensity of solar radiation and its effect on the snowpack.

Weather Forecast

Wednesday: A mix of sun and cloud with strong solar input and light ridgetop wind from the southwest. Freezing level 1700 m and alpine temperatures near -4 C. 

Thursday: WARM. Freezing levels rise to 3000 m by the afternoon. Alpine temperatures +3C and ridgetop wind moderate from the southwest. 

Friday: Cloudy and warm. No overnight freeze and freezing levels remain near 3000 m. Alpine temperatures near +3C. Freezing levels should drop to 1400 m by Saturday with alpine temperatures near -10 C.

Avalanche Summary

Sunday night's storm showed evidence of a widespread natural avalanche cycle up to size 3 on Monday but the average storm/ wind slabs were reported to size 2 and failed in the recent storm snow. Some larger avalanches may have failed on the end of March melt-freeze crust. Most notable was a natural size 3.5 storm slab that started at 2600 m and ran to the valley bottom. 

Avalanche hazard will likely spike on Wednesday with sunshine and the effects of solar radiation on the recent storm snow.  

Snowpack Summary

Wednesdays' sun and warming will likely create moist/ wet surface snow on all aspects up to 1500 m and to the mountain top on southerly slopes. 

15 to 30 cm of storm snow has blanketed the region and buried multiple crusts in the upper snowpack. Moderate to strong west/ southwest wind will be redistributing the new storm snow in exposed high elevation terrain forming wind slabs and developing large cornices.

The new snow brings 50-70 cm above will a crust from late March. The amount of snow on the crust tapers rapidly at lower elevations. This crust is present on all aspects up to an elevation of 2600 m. Below the crust, the snow is moist. 

The early-December rain crust is approximately a metre off the ground. Large slab avalanches have failed on this interface earlier last week following a rain and warming event. This layer may be dormant now due to colder weather and a good overnight refreeze, however, it may appear again during the next big warm-up or with increased load from wind, snow and/or rain. 

Terrain and Travel

  • Watch for changing conditions today, storm slabs may become increasingly reactive.
  • Don't be too cavalier with decision making, storm slabs may remain sensitive to human triggering.
  • If triggered loose wet avalanches may step down to deeper layers resulting in larger avalanches.
  • Cornices become weak with daytime heating or solar exposure.
  • The more the snowpack warms-up and weakens, the more conservative you`ll want to be with your terrain selection.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.