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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 15th, 2022–Mar 16th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Kootenay Boundary.

Cautious route-finding will be important at upper elevations as fresh storm slabs are likely to trigger.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to how quickly the snowpack will recover and gain strength.

Weather Forecast

TUESDAY NIGHT: Scattered flurries bring another 5 cm of snow, moderate wind from the west, treeline temperatures cool to -6 C with freezing level lowering to 1000 m.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy skies, no precipitation, light wind from the west, treeline temperatures around -3 C with freezing level around 1500 m.

THURSDAY: Mix of sun and cloud, moderate wind from the southwest, treeline temperatures around -3 C with freezing level around 1500 m.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with flurries easing off in the morning bringing up to 5 cm of new snow, moderate wind from the southwest, freezing level around 1500 m.

Avalanche Summary

We have preliminary reports of large (size 2) storm slabs avalanches triggered by explosives on Tuesday. We suspect a natural cycle of storm slab avalanches also occurred on Tuesday, with slabs likely remaining reactive to human triggering on Wednesday.

Snowpack Summary

Upper elevations will likely have 20 to 40 cm of fresh storm snow. Most below treeline elevations will have moist and crusty surfaces, as freezing levels during the storm were between 1500 and 1800 m. The upper snowpack is becoming a complex mix of crusts from sun, warming, and rain over the past few weeks. There has been some evidence of isolated weak facets or surface hoar around these crusts (roughly 30 to 60 cm deep), but at this point triggering avalanches on these layers is not likely.

Terrain and Travel

  • Don't be too cavalier with decision making, storm slabs may remain sensitive to human triggering.
  • Be carefull around freshly wind loaded features.
  • Investigate the bond of the recent snow before committing to your line.
  • If you are increasing your exposure to avalanche terrain, do it gradually as you gather information.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.