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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 12th, 2022–Feb 13th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

South Columbia.

A spring-like mindset should be adopted as hazard will increase with daytime warming and solar radiation. 

Caution should be taken in sheltered and shaded areas where dry powder may be preserved and the persistent slab problem remains a concern.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the fact that persistent slabs are particularly difficult to forecast. Uncertainty is due to the timing or intensity of solar radiation and its effect on the snowpack.

Weather Forecast

The ridge of high pressure will start to break down with increasing cloud cover on Sunday.

Saturday Overnight: Mainly clear, some valley cloud may develop. Freezing level dropping to near valley bottom. Light southwest winds at ridgetop.

Sunday: Increasing cloud cover. Freezing level rising to around 2000 m in the afternoon. Light southwest winds at ridgetop.

Monday: Cloudy with light snowfall. Freezing level around 500 m. Light to moderate southwest winds at ridgetop.

Tuesday: Mainly cloudy with light snowfall. Freezing level 500 to 1000 m. Light to moderate southwest winds at ridgetop. 

Avalanche Summary

Earlier in the week, daily reports came in of human-triggered persistent slab avalanches on the January 30th surface hoar, taking both recreationists and professionals by surprise. Reactivity has begun to taper but this buried weak layer should not be taken lightly as it may now present a low-probability, high-consequence problem. On Friday, large avalanches were triggered on this layer with explosives on solar aspects in the alpine and treeline. The most reactivity on this layer has been seen between 1600-2200 m in open areas in the trees, in cut blocks and on steep convexities.

As the sun came out and temperatures rose in the afternoons, numerous wet loose avalanches have been observed on steep solar aspects in the past few days.

Several natural cornice failures have been observed in the past few days, a few of these cornice failures pulling pockets of wind slab on the slope below.

Snowpack Summary

Overnight, clear skies and cooling temperatures will refreeze the surface of the snowpack. A thin breakable crust exists on all aspects and elevations, while a thicker more prominent crust can be expected at lower elevations and on south-facing aspects. Warm daytime temperatures and strong solar radiation will likely cause these crusts to break down throughout the day.

Strong westerly winds throughout the week have created extensive wind-effect in open areas in the alpine and treeline. Expect to find old wind slabs on a variety of aspects, that will likely be unreactive to human triggering after several days of warm temperatures.

Several weak layers exist in the upper snowpack including buried crusts, facets, and a prominent weak layer of surface hoar. This surface hoar is the dominating feature. It was buried in late January and exists 40 to 80 cm deep in the snowpack. Reports suggest that the surface hoar is most prominent in sheltered openings at and below treeline.

The facet/crust layer that formed in early December is buried around 100 to 240 cm. The last reported avalanche was on February 7 in the southwest of the region. Although unlikely, the layer could be triggered from a large load like a cornice fall or a shallower slab avalanche could step down to this layer. Humans are unlikely to trigger it, with perhaps the exception in thin, shallow snowpack areas. Check out the forecaster blog for more information.

Terrain and Travel

  • When a thick, melt-freeze surface crust is present, avalanche activity is unlikely.
  • Be aware of the potential for large avalanches due to the presence of buried surface hoar.
  • Avoid exposure to steep, sun exposed slopes, especially when the solar radiation is strong.
  • As surface loses cohesion due to melting, loose wet avalanches become common in steeper terrain.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.