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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 17th, 2022–Feb 18th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

South Coast Inland.

 The likelihood of triggering the late January layer is low but not impossible. Use caution on slopes where a thick and supportive crust is absent. 

Confidence

Moderate -

Weather Forecast

Thursday night: freezing levels around 1200m. Light snow bringing up to 5cm with moderate westerly winds.

Friday: light snow bringing trace amounts to the north and up to 5cm in the south of the region. Light to moderate west winds. Freezing levels around 1300m.

Saturday: stormy weather bringing 5 to 10cm of new snow and moderate southwest winds. High of -2 at 1500m.

Sunday: a mix of sun and cloud with light southwest wins. High of -2 at 1500m.

Avalanche Summary

Over the past couple days wet loose avalanches were observed up to size 1.5 on solar aspects.

On Monday a size two natural persistent slab avalanche was reported. This avalanche released in steep terrain on a northeast aspect at 1850m and ran on the late January layer. This avalanche likely occured on Sunday.

Snowpack Summary

Up to 20cm of snow has buried a widespread crust and wind-affected surfaces in exposed high elevation terrain. The melt-freeze crust is reported to exist on all aspects and elevations except for high elevation polar aspects in the north of the region which may still hold dry snow. Facets and surface hoar can be found above the crust. 

The late-January crust/facet/surface hoar interface is buried down 20-70 cm. This layer was most reactive between 1700 m and 2000 m in the north of the region. While this layer now appears to be dormant in many parts of the region, recent snowpack tests suggest it is still very reactive in a few places in the north of the region and would still be capable of producing large avalanches if triggered.

Terrain and Travel

  • Be aware of the potential for large avalanches due to the presence of buried persistent weak layers.
  • Wind slabs may be poorly bonded to the underlying crust.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.