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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 5th, 2022–Mar 6th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

North Columbia.

Storm snow is still gaining strength, evaluate terrain and snowpack conditions as you travel.

Be most cautious on sun affected slopes, storm slabs and wet avalanches are most likely to be triggered here. 

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the timing or intensity of solar radiation and its effect on the snowpack.

Weather Forecast

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy, with isolated flurries possible. Light northwest winds. Freezing levels drop to valley bottom. 

SUNDAY: Strong sun with westerly winds increasing to moderate/strong late afternoon. Freezing levels reach 1300 m, alpine high of -4. 

MONDAY: A mix of sun and cloud with moderate westerly winds. Flurries bring 3-10cm. Freezing levels reach 1300 m. Alpine high of -4. 

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy, with light northeast winds. Freezing levels below valley bottom. Alpine high of -8. 

Avalanche Summary

While storm slab activity continues to taper off, recent activity indicates the impact of sun on surface weak layers. 

On Friday solar input was significant, triggering large storm slabs on sun affected slopes and producing loose wet activity to size 2.5 at lower elevations. Recent avalanche activity appears to be confined to new snow, and is concentrated in the Selkirks.

A notable exception is an isolated size 3 persistent slab avalanche in the Esplanade Range on Tuesday (in the eastern Selkirks). Avalanches on persistent weak layers are now unlikely in most parts of the region based on recent weather trends and lack of avalanches, but extra caution in terrain selection is suggested for those venturing into the eastern Selkirks.

Snowpack Summary

Recent storm snow has settled into 20 to 40 cm of heavy powder at upper elevations. 

At lower elevations and on south facing slopes it has become moist and crusty (below 1800 m near Revelstoke and below 1500 m near Blue River). The storm snow sits over a crust-facet-surface hoar combination. This interface remains reactive, mostly on south facing slopes during periods of sun. 

Two persistent weak layers are buried 50-100cm deep. These have shown limited reactivity recently, and reports suggest they are strengthening. 

Terrain and Travel

  • Don't be too cavalier with decision making, storm slabs may remain sensitive to human triggering.
  • Minimize exposure to sun-exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong.
  • Cornices become weak with daytime heating.
  • Be careful as you transition into wind affected terrain.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.