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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 29th, 2022–Mar 30th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Vancouver Island.

A firm, supportive, upper snowpack makes avalanches unlikely. Avoid steep slopes if they are loose and slushy, and watch for small windslabs in the high alpine. Bring your crampons and ice axes.

Confidence

High - Confidence is due to a stable weather pattern with little change expected.

Weather Forecast

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Light rain/snow expected. Moderate to strong southwest ridgetop wind. Freezing level falling to around 1000 m. 

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy with a possible clear period in the morning. Light snow/rain expected. Moderate southwest ridgetop wind. Freezing level around 1000 m. 

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny at high elevations, low to mid level cloud. Very light snow/rain expected. Light variable ridgetop wind. Freezing level around 1200 m.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Light to moderate snow/rain expected. Strong southwest ridgetop wind. Freezing level around 1300 m. 

Avalanche Summary

On Tuesday, loose wet avalanche activity tapered off as the temperature dropped, and the sun went behind the clouds. 

On Monday, small, loose wet avalanche activity in the top 10 cms was most active on steep slopes in the sun.  

If you venture into the mountains, please share any observations on the Mountain Information Network. 

Snowpack Summary

A dusting of new snow may cover a melt freeze crust that exists over moist snow to mountain top. The crust may break down as temperatures rise through the day, and on steep, south facing slopes if the sun pokes out.

At treeline and above, another, thicker crust 10 cm below the snow surface is limiting loose wet avalanches to the near-surface snow. 

Terrain and Travel

  • Make observations and assess conditions continually as you travel.
  • Minimize your exposure time below cornices.
  • When a thick, melt-freeze surface crust is present, avalanche activity is unlikely.
  • Back off slopes as the surface becomes moist or wet with rising temperatures.
  • The more the snow feels like a slurpy, the more likely loose wet avalanches will become.
  • Use caution above cliffs and terrain traps where even small avalanches may have severe consequences.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.