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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 20th, 2022–Feb 21st, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Purcells.

Southwest winds have turned northeast and may load unexpected features. Watch for reactivity on all aspects around ridgelines. 

Keep a close eye on south facing slopes as the sun may quickly destabilize the surface snow.

Confidence

Moderate - Confidence is due to a stable weather pattern with little change expected.

Weather Forecast

Arctic air drops temperatures and clears skies this week. Expect mostly sunny days with a chance of occasional flurries.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries and light easterly winds. Freezing levels drop to valley bottom.

MONDAY: Mostly clear with scattered cloud, light northeast winds. Freezing levels at valley bottom with alpine highs of -15. Chance of flurries. 

TUESDAY: Mostly clear skies with moderate easterly winds. Freezing levels below valley bottom, with alpine highs of -20. 

WEDNESDAY: Mostly clear skies with moderate westerly winds. with isolated flurries. Light winds. Freezing level valley bottom, high of -15. 

Avalanche Summary

Small human triggered dry loose avalanches were triggered on Saturday as snowfall began to accumulate. 

We expect human triggered slab avalanches to have occurred on Sunday, within the storm snow. 

Snowpack Summary

20-30cm of recent snowfall sits over a melt freeze crust on solar aspects at all elevations, and wind effected surfaces in exposed terrain. In sheltered terrain features a small layer of surface hoar may exists above the melt freeze crust.

A layer of buried surface hoar sits 30-50cm deep in the upper snowpack, most likely to be found and triggered on north aspects in sheltered areas. This layer has produced variable results in recent snowpack tests, and could be triggered by very large loads such as a cornice fall or step down avalanche. 

The lower snowpack is well consolidated, with a crust/facet layer found 80 to 150 cm deep. It is currently considered dormant, but could become active later this season. Check out the forecaster blog for more information. 

Terrain and Travel

  • The new snow could use a day or two to settle and stabilize before we start to tee up the bigger lines.
  • Recent wind has varied in direction so watch for wind slabs on all aspects.
  • Minimize exposure to sun-exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.