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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 20th, 2022–Mar 21st, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Cariboos.

Danger ratings have dropped, but potential to trigger buried weak layers still exists in the central and southern Cariboos. 

Expect avalanche danger to change as you travel through different aspects and elevations. 

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the fact that persistent slabs are particularly difficult to forecast.

Weather Forecast

SUNDAY NIGHT: Increasing cloud with moderate southwest winds. Freezing levels drop to valley bottom. Scattered flurries.

MONDAY: Scattered flurries with mostly cloudy skies. Moderate southwest winds. Freezing levels reach 1700 m. Alpine high of +1

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries. Strong southwest winds. Freezing levels remain high, reaching 2200 m. Alpine highs around +4.

WEDNESDAY: 5-10 cm of snow forecast as freezing levels drop to 1500 m over the day. Moderate southwest winds. Alpine high of +2. 

Avalanche Summary

Avalanche activity has been tapering off over the week, with natural activity observed on Thursday. On Wednesday large remotely triggered avalanches were reported on north and south aspects with impressive propagation. 

On Saturday, a rider triggered a size 1.5 slab avalanche on a southeast facing treeline slope.

Small wet avalanches have been reported within the last 5 days, on all aspects below the freezing line and on sun affected slopes. 

Snowpack Summary

Up to 70 cm of recent settling storm snow sits over a layer of weak surface hoar in sheltered and shaded terrain, and over a crust on south facing slopes. The new snow is bonding poorly to this old surface in some areas, producing large avalanches within the last 5 days, and reactive results on testing. 

At higher elevations consistent southwest winds are creating deeper deposits on north through east facing features. Below 1500 m, moist snow or a melt-freeze crust likely exists from recent rain and warm temperatures.

The lower snowpack is generally well-settled and strong in most areas, with crust layers 50 to 100 cm deep.

Terrain and Travel

  • Potential for wide propagation exists, fresh slabs may rest on surface hoar, facets and/or crust.
  • Carefully assess open slopes and convex rolls where buried surface hoar may be preserved.
  • Avoid freshly wind loaded features, especially near ridge crests, roll-overs and in steep terrain.
  • Minimize exposure to sun-exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.