The likelihood of triggering the late January layer is low but not impossible. Use extra caution on slopes where a thick supportive crust is absent.
The late-January weak layer is down 30-70 cm and was most reactive between 1700 and 2000 m. It is now likely dormant in many areas, especially where there is a supportive surface crust. However, recent snowpack tests suggest it is still reactive and capable of producing large avalanches if triggered. We have now entered a low probability, high consequence scenario with this layer.
Tuesday night: Low of -4 at 1400m. Lightt to moderate northwest winds with the possibilities of light flurries bringing trace amounts of snow.
Wednesday: mostly sunny with freezing levels rising to 1600m. Light to moderate northwest winds.
Thursday: Cloudy with light flurries bringing trace amounts of snow. Light to moderate northwest winds and freezing levels rising to 1300m.
Friday: cloudy with the possibility of light flurries bringing trace amounts of snow. Light to moderate northwest winds and freezing levels rising to 1300m.
On Sunday, several natural cornices were observed in the north of the region, some of which triggered size 1-2 slabs on the slopes below. Small loose wet avalanches were also observed from steep sun-exposed slopes.
On Saturday, a natural size 2 cornice release was reported from a steep, rocky NW aspect at 2100 m. A variety of loose wet avalanches were reported from steep, sun-exposed slopes. Explosives triggered four cornices up to size 2.
A dusting of new snow has buried a widespread surface crust and wind-affected surfaces in exposed high elevation terrain. The new melt-freeze crust is reported to exist on all aspects and elevations except for some of the highest elevation polar aspects which may still hold dry snow. The crust is reported to be undergoing faceting in some areas.
The late-January crust/facet/surface hoar interface is buried down 30-70 cm. This layer was most reactive between 1700 m and 2000 m. While this layer now appears to be dormant in many parts of the region, recent snowpack tests suggest it is still very reactive in a few places and would still be capable of producing large avalanches if triggered.
