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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 12th, 2022–Mar 15th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.

Regions

Waterton Lakes.

Freezing levels expected to hover at 1800 m for the next few days and rain is expected Tuesday. Likelihood of loose wet cycle below treeline will increase through the forecasting period.

Assess bond of new snow at higher elevations to old surfaces.

Weather Forecast

Sunday: Mainly cloudy with isolated flurries. Moderate to strong SW winds. Alpine high -3. Freezing level 1800m.

Monday: Flurries, 9 cm accumulation. Strong SW winds. Alpine high -3, low -7. FL 1400m.

Tuesday: Periods of snow, 17 cm accumulation. Moderate gusting extreme SW winds. Alpine high -3, low -7. FL 1800m.

Snowpack Summary

Extreme SW winds and warm temps have pressed surface snow and created windslabs up to 70cm deep in alpine. This overlies old windslabs and the March 3 rain crust. An additional 50 cm of settling snow over the Feb 15 crust that exists up to 2000m. Lower snowpack is well settled 1F to P. HS 250-300 cm near the continental divide.

Avalanche Summary

A Na size 2.5 wind slab avalanche was observed on Bertha peak on March 12. Several other wind slab avalanches to size 3 were reported in the park this week. As always keep those Mountain Information Network observations coming.

Confidence

Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.