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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Nov 27th, 2020–Nov 28th, 2020

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

North Rockies.

A significant storm has brought up to 70 cm new snow to this region, particularly to southern areas such as Torpy, Renshaw and Kakwa. Avoid avalanche terrain during and immediately after the storm. 

Confidence

Low - Uncertainty is due to the limited number of field observations.

Weather Forecast

FRIDAY NIGHT: Southern areas 25 cm, northern areas 10-15 cm new snow. Moderate northwest winds. Cooling trend.

SATURDAY: Dry and clearing towards noon. Moderate northwesterly winds becoming westerly in the afternoon. Treeline temperatures around -9C.

SUNDAY: Windy, with strong southwesterly winds at ridgetop. Dry. Freezing level rising to around 1400 m.

MONDAY: 5-10 cm new snow. Strong southwesterly winds. Freezing level around 1500 m. 

Avalanche Summary

I strongly suspect there will be evidence of natural avalanches from Friday's storm.

Snowpack Summary

Snow depths are approximately 150 cm in the north west of the region (Pine Pass), 180 cm in the south (Renshaw, Kakwa) and 100 cm in the the north east (Tumbler ridge).

In the deeper areas, successive storms have resulted in deep powder in the upper snowpack. Expect to sink in far if you step off your machine. In windy areas, this snow will almost certainly have been blown into denser wind deposits.

Most likely the most significant instabilities are within or at the base of the most recent storm snow, approximately 50 cm below the snow surface.

Crusts have been reported towards the base of the snowpack. These are of most concern on steep terrain in thinner snowpack areas.

Terrain and Travel

  • Stick to simple terrain and be aware of what is above you at all times.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.