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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 6th, 2020–Dec 7th, 2020

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

South Coast.

Someone turned the faucet on. Rain increasingly stresses the snowpack by adding load and heat, best to avoid avalanche terrain during periods of heavy rain.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the track & intensity of the incoming weather system.

Weather Forecast

SUNDAY NIGHT: Showers and rain, 10 mm / Moderate, south-southwest ridgetop wind / alpine low temperature +1 / Freezing level 1600 m

MONDAY: Rain, 30-50 mm / Strong, southwest ridgetop wind / alpine high temperature +4 / Freezing level rising sharply above 2500 m

TUESDAY: Rain and wet snow, 20-40 mm / Strong decreasing to moderate, southwest ridgetop wind / alpine high temperature +5 / Freezing level dropping to 1700 m

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with isolated flurries / Light, northwest ridgetop wind / alpine high temperature +2 / Freezing level 1300 m

Avalanche Summary

The last avalanche observations are from last Wednesday (Nov 2) when numerous slab and loose wet avalanches were reported at treeline elevations and associated with rapid warming. On Thursday, several glide cracks did start to open up on the North Shore Mountains.

Have you been out and about in the mountains? If so please submit to the Mountain Information Network (MIN). It doesn't have to be technical it can be as simple as a photo. Photos are especially helpful! Sending out a big thank you to the already submitted MIN's this season. Thanks everyone!

Snowpack Summary

Recent sun and warm alpine temperatures have had a deep impact on the snowpack. Melt-freeze conditions exist on most aspects. Dry, wind-affected snow may prevail in high alpine polar terrain. Expect the snowpack to soften quickly with forecasted rain and warm temperatures.

Snowpack depth rapidly changes with elevation, the snowpack depth varies from 100 cm in the trees up to 150-200 cm near mountain tops.

Terrain and Travel

  • The more the snow feels like a slurpy, the more likely loose wet avalanches will become.
  • Avoid avalanche terrain during periods of heavy rain.
  • The first few hours of rain will likely be the most dangerous period.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.