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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 20th, 2020–Mar 21st, 2020

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Northwest Coastal.

With increasing cloud cover and slightly cooler temperatures, the potential for solar induced avalanche activity will decrease through the day Saturday. Still watch for signs of instability such as pinwheeling on sun-exposed slopes when the sun feels strong.

Confidence

High - Confidence is due to a stable weather pattern with little change expected.

Weather Forecast

Friday night: Clear. Moderate to strong northwest wind. Freezing level 500 m.

Saturday: Increasing cloud. Strong northwest wind. Freezing level 1100 m.

Sunday: 10-20 cm new snow. Wind easing to light, variable. Freezing level 900 m.

Monday: Mix of sun and cloud. Light northeast wind. Freezing level 1200 m.

Avalanche Summary

Natural loose wet avalanche activity has been observed on sun-exposed slopes during the heat of the day over the last few warm days. A few cornices were also triggered by the warming. Some glide slab activity has been reported recently out of steep terrain where snow sits over smooth surfaces. 

If you decide to travel in the backcountry, consider sharing your observations with us and fellow recreationists via the Mountain Information Network (MIN) to supplement our data stream as operators are shutting down. Even just a photo of what the day looked like would be helpful.

Snowpack Summary

Wind-affected snow surfaces exist in exposed terrain at alpine and treeline elevations from predominantly northeast wind. Previously formed wind slabs have likely bonded given the recent warm temperatures. In sheltered terrain, soft and faceted snow may be found. Clear skies have melted the snow surface on sun-exposed slopes during the day and frozen it into a melt-freeze crust during nights.

A layer of surface hoar crystals is buried around 30 to 60 cm in sheltered areas at and below treeline. See this MIN from the Shames area that shows this layer when it was on the surface, prior to burial on March 9.

An early-season layer of faceted grains and a melt-freeze crust may linger at the base of the snowpack. A large load, such as a cornice fall, has the potential of triggering it.

Terrain and Travel

  • Avoid exposure to steep, sun exposed slopes, especially when the solar radiation is strong.
  • Minimize overhead exposure; avalanches triggered by warming or cornice fall may be large and destructive.
  • Be aware of the potential for large avalanches due to the presence of buried surface hoar.
  • Carefully evaluate steep lines for wind slabs.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.