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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 14th, 2023–Feb 15th, 2023

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

North Columbia, South Columbia, Esplanade, Jordan, North Selkirk, Shuswap, Badshot-Battle, Central Selkirk, Goat, Gold, Kokanee, North Okanagan, Retallack, Valhalla, Whatshan.

Wind slabs are becoming more difficult to trigger, don't commit to a steep slope if the snow looks wind affected or feels dense or stiff. Back off if you see evidence of nearby avalanches, or if you notice cracks appearing in the snow surface or other signs of instability.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

Natural and human-triggered wind slabs continue throughout the region.

Sporadic avalanche activity continues on persistent weak layers buried in January. These avalanches continue to remind us that these layers are taking time to heal and continue to require diligence.

Going forward wind slabs are becoming more difficult to trigger but still require some time to bond to previous surfaces.

Snowpack Summary

Recent snow has been redistributed into wind slabs directly lee of ridges at treeline and alpine elevations. The most recent snow is generally bonding to previous surfaces of old wind slabs and soft snow in sheltered terrain.

Two layers of surface hoar which formed in early January are now roughly 80 to 140 cm deep. Although snowpack tests are indicating strengthening here, these weak layers are still being watched closely by local operators.

Large and weak facets from November are near the base of the snowpack and although avalanche activity on this basal weakness has been on a bit of a decline, it still figures prominently in the assessments and terrain use (and avoidance) of professionals throughout the region.

Weather Summary

Tuesday night

Mostly clear, trace accumulations, 5 to 10 km/h southwest winds, treeline temperatures-10 °C

Wednesday

A mix of sun and cloud, 5 to 10 km/h west winds, treeline temperatures around -10 °C.

Thursday

Mainly cloudy, 5 to 10 km/h southwest winds, flurries beginning in the evening, 2 to 5 cm new snow, treeline temperatures -7 °C.

Friday

Mainly cloudy, flurries 5 to 10 cm of new snow, 20 to 30 km/h winds, treeline temperatures -8 °C.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Avoid shallow snowpack areas, rock outcroppings and steep convex terrain where triggering is most likely.
  • Be especially cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • Watch for areas of hard wind slab on alpine features.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.