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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 13th, 2026–Feb 14th, 2026

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Lizard.

7am UPDATE: Fresh, reactive storm slabs are building over a weak surface. Buried weak layers in the upper snowpack may remain triggerable.

Confidence

Moderate

  • We are confident that there are persistent slabs in the snowpack, but uncertain about how likely they are to trigger.
  • We are uncertain about forecast snowfall amounts.

Avalanche Summary

Over the past few days, the persistent slab problem has been tested, with mixed results. On Wednesday and Thursday, a couple of natural cornice falls reported from around the region did not trigger slabs on slopes below. Meanwhile, explosive testing on a convex roll at treeline in the Lizard range produced a size 1.5 persistent slab avalanche.

Snowpack Summary

20 to 30 cm of new snow falls over a widespread layer of surface hoar and a crust on solar aspects.

Below this, depending on aspect and elevation, the top 50 cm may contain one or two more layers of crust, facet and/or surface hoar formed in late January and early February. We are uncertain whether these layers will become more or less problematic as they get buried deeper.

The mid and lower snowpack remain well settled, with no significant concerns at this time.

Weather Summary

Friday Night
Cloudy. 20 cm of snow. 40 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -5 °C.

Saturday
Mostly cloudy. 5 to 15 cm of snow. 40 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -5 °C.

Sunday
Mix of sun and clouds. 2 to 4 cm of snow. 30 km/h west ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -6 °C.

Monday
Mix of sun and clouds. 4 to 5 cm of snow. 30 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -5 °C.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Watch for fresh storm slabs building throughout the day.
  • Closely monitor how the new snow is bonding to the old surface.
  • Keep in mind a buried crust offers an excellent bed surface for avalanches.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.