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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 13th, 2023–Dec 14th, 2023

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Cariboos, North Columbia, Blue River, Clearwater, McBride, Premier, Quesnel, Clemina, Esplanade, Jordan, North Monashee, North Selkirk.

Recent storm snow and buried weak layers may be reactive to human triggering. Make conservative terrain choices.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

Since the weekend several skier-triggered persistent slab avalanches up to size 2.5 have been reported. They failed on weak layers comprised of surface hoar and or facets 40-70 cm. Check out this MIN from the adjacent region. It paints a clear picture.

Natural avalanche activity may spike with new snow and strong winds in the forecast, although human-triggered persistent slabs remain the primary concern.

Snowpack Summary

New snow expected on Thursday will bury a variety of snow surfaces including wind-affected snow, sun crusts on steeper south aspects and surface hoar. Approximately 25 to 40 cm down exists a rain crust that has been observed to ridgeline in most areas.

A concerning layer of surface hoar is now buried 50-80 cm deep. This layer has recently been reactive to human triggering above 2100 m.

The lower snowpack is a mix of rounded and faceted grains. A hard crust may be found near the ground.

Treeline snowpack depths are variable and generally range between 100 to 150 cm. Snowpack tapers rapidly as you move lower in elevation.

Weather Summary

Wednesday NightCloudy with new snow 5-10 cm. Ridgetop wind 15 to 65 km/h from the south. Alpine temperatures near -5 C. Freezing levels valley bottom.

ThursdayCloudy with snowfall, 10 to 15 cm. Ridgetop wind 15 to 25 km/h from the southwest. Treeline temperature around -4 C. Freezing levels valley bottom.

FridayA mix of sun and cloud. Ridgetop wind 15-25 km/h. Treeline temperatures near -5 C and freeing levels valley bottom. Alpine winds are light from the south with temperatures near -2 C. Freezing levels 1200 m.

SaturdayMix of sun and cloud. Ridgetop wind is primarily light with strong gusts. Treeline temperatures near -4 and freezing levels valley bottom. A weak above-freezing layer may occur.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Use careful route-finding and stick to moderate slope angles with low consequences.
  • Be aware of the potential for larger than expected storm slabs due to the presence of buried surface hoar.
  • Carefully assess open slopes and convex rolls where buried surface hoar may be preserved.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.