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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 4th, 2024–Jan 5th, 2024

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

North Columbia, South Columbia, Jordan, Shuswap, West Purcell, Badshot-Battle, Central Selkirk, Goat, Gold, North Okanagan, Whatshan.

6am update: New snow may be poorly bonded to old surfaces. Expect loose dry sluffing and storm slabs to slide easily. Be mindful a buried weak layer may remain triggerable.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

A few small (size 1) wind slab and dry loose avalanches were triggered by riders and explosives on Tuesday. With incoming snow and wind, small avalanches in the surface snow will likely continue.

The last reported persistent slab avalanche on the buried surface hoar was last Saturday. Triggering a persistent slab avalanche remains possible in upper treeline and alpine terrain.

Snowpack Summary

New snow is gradually accumulating over crusts, surface hoar, and facets. Amounts on this interface vary from 10 to 30 cm, and reports suggest it may be bonding poorly.

A crust formed by a December rain event is found roughly 60 cm deep, and a layer of surface hoar is found 60 to 100 cm deep. Where it exists, the crust makes it harder to trigger the surface hoar layer, but triggering remains a concern at higher elevations where the crust is less prominent.

The lower snowpack is variable throughout the region, with basal facets possible in shallower snowpack areas.

Weather Summary

Thursday night

Cloudy with 5 to 10 cm of new snow in most areas, up to 20 cm in the Monashees, alpine wind southwest 40 km/h, treeline temperature -7 °C.

Friday

Mostly cloudy with up to 5 cm of new snow, alpine wind southwest 40 km/h, treeline temperature -4 °C.

Saturday

Cloudy with 5 to 15 cm of new snow, alpine wind southwest 35 km/h, treeline temperature -5 °C.

Sunday

Mostly cloudy with a trace of new snow, alpine wind northwest 20 km/h, treeline temperature -6 °C.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Closely monitor how the new snow is bonding to the old surface.
  • Be aware of the potential for loose avalanches in steep terrain where snow hasn't formed a slab.
  • Watch for wind-loaded pockets especially around ridgecrest and in extreme terrain.
  • Carefully assess open slopes and convex rolls where buried surface hoar may be preserved.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.