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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 15th, 2023–Dec 16th, 2023

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

South Columbia, Shuswap, Badshot-Battle, Goat, Gold, Kokanee, North Okanagan, Retallack, Valhalla, Whatshan.

Start with small slopes, and gather information. Continue to be wary of a buried layer of surface hoar.

In times of uncertainty conservative terrain choices are our best defense.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

The surface hoar continues to cause concerning results in snowpack tests. Despite a lack of avalanche observations, we presume that large, human triggered avalanches are still possible in areas where dense, slabby snow sits over this layer of weak, feathery crystals.

Snowpack Summary

Recent snow accompanied by strong wind has formed wind slabs. This covers previous old wind slabs, sun crusts on steeper south aspects, and surface hoar in sheltered areas. Down 25-50 cm a rain crust has been observed and exists up to 2100 m throughout this region. The thickness of this crust tapers with elevation gain.

A concerning layer of surface hoar is now buried 60 to 90 cm deep at upper elevations and may be more reactive to human triggering above 2100 m.

The lower snowpack is a mix of rounded and faceted grains. A hard crust may be found near the ground.

Treeline snowpack depths are variable and generally range between 70 and 120 cm. Snowpack tapers rapidly as you move lower in elevation.

Weather Summary

Friday Night

Partly cloudy. No new snow expected. Light to moderate southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature around -5°C. Freezing level between 1000 and 1500 m.

Saturday

Possible clear periods in the morning, cloudy through the day. No new snow expected. Ridgetop wind tapering off to very light southwest. Treeline temperature around -3°C. Freezing level rising to around 1300 m.

Sunday

Mostly cloudy. Possible trace of snow expected. Light variable ridgetop wind. and temperatures near +2 C. Treeline temperature around -3°C with alpine temperature inversion.

Monday

Mostly cloudy. Possible trace of snow expected. Light to moderate south or southeast ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature around -1°C with alpine temperature inversion.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Stay off recently wind loaded slopes until they have had a chance to stabilize.
  • Carefully assess open slopes and convex rolls where buried surface hoar may be preserved.
  • Use conservative route selection and resist venturing out into complex terrain.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.