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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 16th, 2025–Jan 17th, 2025

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Kitimat, Nass, Rupert, Seven Sisters, Shames, Howson, Microwave-Sinclair.

The recent storm snow will need time to settle and stabilize, and human triggering is likely.

Deep instabilities are still present and have produced recent large avalanches.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

A widespread natural avalanche cycle occurred during the recent storm up to size 3. In the Shames backcountry, numerous avalanches up to size 2 were reported. Check out the MIN here.

Natural avalanche activity will likely taper on Friday but human-triggered avalanches will remain likely.

Snowpack Summary

Another 25 cm of snow fell by Thursday afternoon. Strong southwest wind has created widespread wind effect, with deeper deposits of snow on leeward slopes. At lower elevations, the new snow may have a poor bond to the crust found up to 1300 m.

Down 50 to 100 cm a layer of surface hoar, facets, or a thin crust exists.

A persistent weak layer of surface hoar and facets overlying a crust is buried 120 to 200 cm deep.

Weather Summary

Thursday Night

Clear periods. 10 gusting to 40 km/h northwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -4 °C. Freezing level valley bottom.

Friday

A mix of sun and cloud. 10 to 20 km/h northwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -5 °C. Freezing level valley bottom.

Saturday

A mix of sun and cloud. 10 to 15 km/h north ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -6 °C. Freezing level valley bottom.

Sunday

Cloudy with sunny periods. 10 to 15 km/h north ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -5 °C. Freezing level valley bottom. Alpine above freezing layer.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Keep your guard up as storm slabs may remain sensitive to human triggering.
  • Storm slabs in motion may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.
  • Expect slab conditions to change drastically as you move into wind-exposed terrain.
  • Back off if you encounter whumpfing, hollow sounds, or shooting cracks.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.