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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 14th, 2025–Jan 15th, 2025

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Glacier.

Take the time to dig into the snowpack. See if the surface hoar/suncrust exists underfoot. If it's there and the snow feels firm above, there's the potential for a human-triggered slab avalanche.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

Skier triggered sz 3 in Lone Pine yesterday, ran ~1000m and accumulated significant mass.

The natural cycle has slowed. Several natural avalanches to sz 2.5 were observed Monday afternoon, triggered by solar input on S through W slopes.

There have been several reports of rider triggered avalanches up to size 1 in terrain adjacent to Glacier National Park.

Snowpack Summary

30-40cm of settled snow overlies a weak interface of widespread surface hoar on all aspects into the high alpine, and a thin suncrust on steep S to W aspects. Open Alpine and Treeline slopes exposed to S'ly winds, and their adjacent lee features, hold pockets of wind slab. Where present, stiff surface slabs have been reactive in tests, indicating propagation potential.

Overall the mid and lower snowpack is strong and well settled.

Weather Summary

Mild temps until Thurs, then a small pulse of snow and plummeting temps.

Tonight Mainly cloudy. Alpine low -4°C. Wind SW 30-40km/hr. Freezing level (FZL) at valley bottom.

Wed Cloudy, isolated flurries. Alpine high -1°C. Wind SW 30-40km/hr. FZL 1700m.

Thurs Flurries. 10cm. Alp high -5°C. Winds W 30 gusting to 90km/h. FZL 1100m.

Fri Sun/cloud/isolated flurries. Alp high -12°C. Winds N 15-35km/h. FZL valley bottom

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Be especially cautious as you transition into wind-affected terrain.
  • Avoid areas where the snow feels stiff and/or slabby.
  • Watch for signs of instability like whumpfing, hollow sounds, shooting cracks, or recent avalanches.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.