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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 19th, 2025–Feb 20th, 2025

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

Vancouver Island, East Island, North Island, South Island, West Island.

While this stormy weather pattern feels familiar, an unfamiliar weak layer still exist deeper in the snowpack. Smaller avalanches may step down to deeper instabilities.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

There were a few size 1 to 1.5 slab avalanches reported over the weekend. These were running southwest through north aspects at treeline and in the alpine. There were also some reports of whumpfing and cracking in the Mt Cokely area.

If you are heading into the backcountry, consider posting a MIN.

Snowpack Summary

New snow falls on old wind-affected snow, facets, surface hoar, or a melt freeze crust. The bond of the new snow to the underlying layers is unknown.

At upper elevations, wind has redistributed storm snow into fresh wind slabs in lee terrain.

A widespread crust, sometimes accompanied by a thin layer of weak facets, is buried 30 to 70 cm beneath predominantly low-density snow.

The mid and lower snowpack contains no other layers of concern.

Weather Summary

Wednesday Night

Cloudy with 5 to 10 mm of mixed precipitation. 30 to 50 km/h west ridgetop wind. Freezing level 1200 m

Thursday

Cloudy with 5 to 10 mm of mixed precipitation. 30 to 50 km/h west ridgetop wind. Freezing level 1200 m.

Friday

Cloudy with 15 to 35 mm of mixed precipitation. 70 to 90 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Freezing level 1500 m.

Saturday

Cloudy with 10 to 60 mm of mixed precipitation. 50 to 90 km/h south ridgetop wind. Freezing level rising to 2000 m.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Minimize exposure during periods of heavy loading from new snow and wind.
  • Use small, low consequence slopes to test the bond of the new snow.
  • Fresh snow rests on a problematic persistent slab, don't let good riding lure you into complacency.
  • A moist or wet snow surface, pinwheeling, and natural avalanches are all indicators of a weakening snowpack.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.